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Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes

Author

Listed:
  • Lacey A. Mason

    (University of Michigan
    Institute for Fisheries Research, University of Michigan and Michigan Department of Natural Resources)

  • Catherine M. Riseng

    (University of Michigan)

  • Andrew D. Gronewold

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory)

  • Edward S. Rutherford

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory)

  • Jia Wang

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory)

  • Anne Clites

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory)

  • Sigrid D. P. Smith

    (University of Michigan)

  • Peter B. McIntyre

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

Abstract

The effects of climate change on north temperate freshwater ecosystems include increasing water temperatures and decreasing ice cover. Here we compare those trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes at three spatial scales to evaluate how warming varies across the surface of these massive inland water bodies. We compiled seasonal ice cover duration (1973–2013) and lake summer surface water temperatures (LSSWT; 1994–2013), and analyzed spatial patterns and trends at lake-wide, lake sub-basin, and fine spatial scales and compared those to reported lake- and basin-wide trends. At the lake-wide scale we found declining ice duration and warming LSSWT patterns consistent with previous studies. At the lake sub-basin scale, our statistical models identified distinct warming trends within each lake that included significant breakpoints in ice duration for 13 sub-basins, consistent linear declines in 11 sub-basins, and no trends in 4 sub-basins. At the finest scale, we found that the northern- and eastern-most portions of each Great Lake, especially in nearshore areas, have experienced faster rates of LSSWT warming and shortening ice duration than those previously reported from trends at the lake scale. We conclude that lake-level analyses mask significant spatial and temporal variation in warming patterns within the Laurentian Great Lakes. Recognizing spatial variability in rates of change can inform both mechanistic modeling of ecosystem responses and planning for long-term management of these large freshwater ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Lacey A. Mason & Catherine M. Riseng & Andrew D. Gronewold & Edward S. Rutherford & Jia Wang & Anne Clites & Sigrid D. P. Smith & Peter B. McIntyre, 2016. "Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 71-83, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1721-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1721-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Gronewold & Vincent Fortin & Brent Lofgren & Anne Clites & Craig Stow & Frank Quinn, 2013. "Coasts, water levels, and climate change: A Great Lakes perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 697-711, October.
    2. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    3. Frank Millerd, 2011. "The potential impact of climate change on Great Lakes international shipping," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 629-652, February.
    4. Catherine M. O'Reilly & Simone R. Alin & Pierre-Denis Plisnier & Andrew S. Cohen & Brent A. McKee, 2003. "Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika, Africa," Nature, Nature, vol. 424(6950), pages 766-768, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xinyu Li & Shushi Peng & Yi Xi & R. Iestyn Woolway & Gang Liu, 2022. "Earlier ice loss accelerates lake warming in the Northern Hemisphere," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Jake F. Weltzin & Julio L. Betancourt & Benjamin I. Cook & Theresa M. Crimmins & Carolyn A. F. Enquist & Michael D. Gerst & John E. Gross & Geoffrey M. Henebry & Rebecca A. Hufft & Melissa A. Kenney &, 2020. "Seasonality of biological and physical systems as indicators of climatic variation and change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1755-1771, December.
    3. Jisesh Sethunadh & F. W. Letson & R. J. Barthelmie & S. C. Pryor, 2023. "Assessing the impact of global warming on windstorms in the northeastern United States using the pseudo-global-warming method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2807-2834, July.
    4. Xialong Ji & Andrew D. Gronewold & Houraa Daher & Richard B. Rood, 2019. "Modeling seasonal onset of coastal ice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 125-141, May.

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