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Enhanced equatorial warming causes deep-tropical contraction and subtropical monsoon shift

Author

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  • Wenyu Zhou

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley)

  • Shang-Ping Xie

    (University of California, San Diego, La Jolla)

  • Da Yang

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley
    University of California, Davis, Davis)

Abstract

Under anthropogenic warming, deep-tropical ascent of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is projected to contract equatorward1–3 while subtropical descent associated with the Hadley cell edge is predicted to expand poleward4. These changes have important implications for regional climate2,5–7, but their mechanisms are not well understood. Here we reveal a key role of enhanced equatorial surface warming (EEW) in driving the deep-tropical contraction and modulating the Hadley expansion. By shifting the seasonally warmed sea surface temperature equatorward, EEW reduces the meridional migration of the seasonal ITCZ and causes an annual-mean deep-tropical contraction. This process further contracts the subtropical circulation, as seen during El Niño, and counteracts the Hadley expansion caused by the global-scale warming. The EEW-induced contraction even dominates in the Northern Hemisphere early summer (June–July), when atmospheric circulation responses to the global-scale warming are weak8. Regionally, this alters the East Asian summer monsoon, shifting both the subtropical jet and Meiyu–Baiu rainband equatorward. Among models in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project9, the degrees of the equatorward shift in the ITCZ, the early-summer subtropical circulation and the East Asian summer monsoon are correlated with EEW. Our results suggest that a better constraint on EEW is critical for accurate projection of tropical and subtropical climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenyu Zhou & Shang-Ping Xie & Da Yang, 2019. "Enhanced equatorial warming causes deep-tropical contraction and subtropical monsoon shift," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 834-839, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0603-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0603-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Yiping Yang & Lanlan Zhang & Liang Yi & Fuchang Zhong & Zhengyao Lu & Sui Wan & Yan Du & Rong Xiang, 2023. "A contracting Intertropical Convergence Zone during the Early Heinrich Stadial 1," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Ruyu Gan & Qi Liu & Gang Huang & Kaiming Hu & Xichen Li, 2023. "Greenhouse warming and internal variability increase extreme and central Pacific El Niño frequency since 1980," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Gan Zhang, 2023. "Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Omid Alizadeh & Morteza Babaei, 2022. "Seasonally dependent precipitation changes and their driving mechanisms in Southwest Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-16, April.

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