IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v178y2025i5d10.1007_s10584-025-03943-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interdecadal changes in persistent drought over Asia under phase transitions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Author

Listed:
  • Jianmin Zhang

    (Zhejiang University)

  • Renguang Wu

    (Zhejiang University)

  • Xiaojing Jia

    (Zhejiang University)

Abstract

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) experienced negative-to-positive phase transitions around the late 1920s and late 1990s. The present study investigates interdecadal changes in Asian persistent drought characterized by the 24-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) under the influence of the AMO phase transitions. Distinct Asian persistent drought changes are found corresponding to the two AMO phase transitions. The first AMO phase transition around the late 1920s is accompanied by a change to a drier condition in most of eastern China and to a wetter condition in western Asia and northeastern Asia. The second AMO phase transition around the late 1990s is followed by a change to a drier condition in most of the mid-latitude Asia. Both precipitation and temperature changes contribute to the persistent drought changes with a larger role of precipitation. The distinct Asian persistent drought changes corresponding to the two AMO phase transitions are attributed to different atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns that induce different precipitation and temperature changes through modulating vertical motion, soil moisture and surface heat fluxes. The distinct atmospheric circulation changes during the two AMO phase transitions are induced by both different AMO-related sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the North Atlantic Ocean and the opposite Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase transition-related SST changes in the North Pacific Ocean. The present study highlights the necessity to distinguish the influences of individual AMO phase transitions and to consolidate the combined effects of the AMO and PDO phase transitions in addressing the interdecadal climate variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianmin Zhang & Renguang Wu & Xiaojing Jia, 2025. "Interdecadal changes in persistent drought over Asia under phase transitions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-19, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03943-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03943-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-025-03943-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-025-03943-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aiguo Dai & John C. Fyfe & Shang-Ping Xie & Xingang Dai, 2015. "Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 555-559, June.
    2. Gustavo Naumann & Carmelo Cammalleri & Lorenzo Mentaschi & Luc Feyen, 2021. "Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(6), pages 485-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yi Li & Youmin Tang & Shuai Wang & Ralf Toumi & Xiangzhou Song & Qiang Wang, 2023. "Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Xu, Yingying & Lü, Haishen & Yagci, Ali Levent & Zhu, Yonghua & Liu, Di & Wang, Qimeng & Xu, Haiting & Pan, Ying & Su, Jianbin, 2024. "Influence of groundwater on the propagation of meteorological drought to agricultural drought during crop growth periods: A case study in Huaibei Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    3. Arthur Charpentier & Molly James & Hani Ali, 2021. "Predicting Drought and Subsidence Risks in France," Papers 2107.07668, arXiv.org.
    4. Guimbeau, Amanda & Ji, Xinde James & Menon, Nidhiya, 2024. "Climate Shocks, Intimate Partner Violence, and the Protective Role of Climate-Resilience Projects," IZA Discussion Papers 17529, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Ruyu Gan & Qi Liu & Gang Huang & Kaiming Hu & Xichen Li, 2023. "Greenhouse warming and internal variability increase extreme and central Pacific El Niño frequency since 1980," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Jiakun Mei & Shangkun Quan & Hairui Yang & Man Zhang & Tuo Zhou & Xi Yang & Mingyu Zhang & Tae-young Mun & Zhouhang Li & Ryang-Gyoon Kim & Xing Zhu & Hua Wang & Dongfang Li, 2025. "Research Progress and Perspectives of the Reaction Kinetics of Fe-Based Oxygen Carriers in Chemical Looping Combustion," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-25, April.
    7. Xiong, Yanfei & Zhang, Anlu & Liu, Mengba & Zhang, Xue & Cheng, Qi, 2024. "Drought risk assessment for citrus and its mitigation resistance under climate change and crop specialization: A case study of southern Jiangxi, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    8. Simon Hoeg, 2024. "Potential Amplifiers of Hydrological Drought: A Deep Dive into the Seasonal Variations of New, Young, and Old Water Fractions in the Stream Discharge of a Pre-Alpine Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(15), pages 6191-6212, December.
    9. Xu, Zhenheng & Sun, Hao & Zhang, Tian & Xu, Huanyu & Wu, Dan & Gao, JinHua, 2023. "Evaluating established deep learning methods in constructing integrated remote sensing drought index: A case study in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    10. André S. Ballarin & Yannis Markonis & Oldrich Rakovec & Simon Michael Papalexiou, 2025. "How likely is Ukraine to experience an extreme drought in the near future?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(6), pages 1-14, June.
    11. Raphael Calel & David A. Stainforth, 2025. "Little floods everywhere: what will climate change mean for you?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(1), pages 1-9, January.
    12. Wenyu Zhou & L. Ruby Leung & Nicholas Siler & Jian Lu, 2023. "Future precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    13. Jihun Ryu & Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang & Jin-Ho Yoon, 2024. "A time of emergence (TOE) analysis on the impact and uncertainty of global warming on Korean peak summers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-15, July.
    14. Chunxiang Li & Tianbao Zhao & Kairan Ying, 2017. "Quantifying the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcings to climate changes over arid-semiarid areas during 1946–2005," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 505-517, October.
    15. Sheunesu Ruwanza & Gladman Thondhlana & Menelisi Falayi, 2022. "Research Progress and Conceptual Insights on Drought Impacts and Responses among Smallholder Farmers in South Africa: A Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, January.
    16. Kasra Jam & Ali Noroozi & Seyed Habibollah Mosavi, 2025. "A holistic view of sustainability in water resources management in the European Union: challenges and threats," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 2083-2116, January.
    17. Holtmann, Anne & Huth, Andreas & Bohn, Friedrich & Fischer, Rico, 2024. "Assessing the impact of multi-year droughts on German forests in the context of increased tree mortality," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    18. Mohammad Fereshtehpour & Mohammad Reza Najafi & Jason A. Leach & Yuxuan Wang, 2025. "Quantifying the individual and combined influence of climate change, land cover transition, and internal climate variability on the hydrology of a snow-dominated forested watershed," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(2), pages 1-32, February.
    19. Romy Carmen Brockhoff & Robbert Biesbroek & Bregje Bolt, 2022. "Drought Governance in Transition: a Case Study of the Meuse River Basin in the Netherlands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(8), pages 2623-2638, June.
    20. Poppick, Andrew & McKinnon, Karen A., 2020. "Observation-based Simulations of Humidity and Temperature Using Quantile Regression," Earth Arxiv bmskp, Center for Open Science.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03943-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.