How likely is Ukraine to experience an extreme drought in the near future?

This study assesses projected changes in precipitation ( $$P$$ ), discharge ( $$Q$$ ), and soil moisture ( $$SM$$ )-based droughts in Ukraine using CMIP6 bias-corrected climate models and the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). Despite model variability, results reveal substantial increases in $$Q$$ - and $$SM$$ -droughts' duration and severity across all scenarios, with the most severe impacts under SSP5-8.5 in the end of the century. Specifically, for both drought types, 50-year extreme $$SM$$ - and $$Q$$ -droughts are projected to be the norm by 2055, exhibiting at least a twofold increase in duration and severity by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5. $$P$$ -droughts, in contrast, are projected to show relatively modest increases in severity and duration. Beyond enhanced droughts, water availability is anticipated to decline across the country, further exacerbating Ukraine’s water- and agriculture-related issues in a war-affected context. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive water management to secure Ukraine’s agricultural sector—a cornerstone of regional and global food security—against the dual threats of drought intensification and the ongoing conflict.