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Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

Author

Listed:
  • L. Samaniego

    (UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research)

  • S. Thober

    (UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research)

  • R. Kumar

    (UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research)

  • N. Wanders

    (Utrecht University)

  • O. Rakovec

    (UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
    Czech University of Life Sciences)

  • M. Pan

    (Princeton University)

  • M. Zink

    (UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)

  • J. Sheffield

    (University of Southampton)

  • E. F. Wood

    (Princeton University)

  • A. Marx

    (UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research)

Abstract

Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1–3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Samaniego & S. Thober & R. Kumar & N. Wanders & O. Rakovec & M. Pan & M. Zink & J. Sheffield & E. F. Wood & A. Marx, 2018. "Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(5), pages 421-426, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0138-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Guevara & Rodrigo Vargas, 2019. "Downscaling satellite soil moisture using geomorphometry and machine learning," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Emőke Kiss & Dániel Balla & András Donát Kovács, 2022. "Characteristics of Climate Concern—Attitudes and Personal Actions—A Case Study of Hungarian Settlements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Jaime Martínez-Valderrama & María E. Sanjuán & Gabriel del Barrio & Emilio Guirado & Alberto Ruiz & Fernando T. Maestre, 2021. "Mediterranean Landscape Re-Greening at the Expense of South American Agricultural Expansion," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    4. Auke M. Woude & Wouter Peters & Emilie Joetzjer & Sébastien Lafont & Gerbrand Koren & Philippe Ciais & Michel Ramonet & Yidi Xu & Ana Bastos & Santiago Botía & Stephen Sitch & Remco Kok & Tobias Kneue, 2023. "Temperature extremes of 2022 reduced carbon uptake by forests in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Martínez-Valderrama, J. & Ibáñez, J. & Ibáñez, M.A. & Alcalá, F.J. & Sanjuán, M.E. & Ruiz, A. & del Barrio, G., 2021. "Assessing the sensitivity of a Mediterranean commercial rangeland to droughts under climate change scenarios by means of a multidisciplinary integrated model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    6. Moritz Von Cossel & Iris Lewandowski & Berien Elbersen & Igor Staritsky & Michiel Van Eupen & Yasir Iqbal & Stefan Mantel & Danilo Scordia & Giorgio Testa & Salvatore Luciano Cosentino & Oksana Maliar, 2019. "Marginal Agricultural Land Low-Input Systems for Biomass Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-25, August.
    7. Qianhan Wu & Linghong Ke & Jida Wang & Tamlin M. Pavelsky & George H. Allen & Yongwei Sheng & Xuejun Duan & Yunqiang Zhu & Jin Wu & Lei Wang & Kai Liu & Tan Chen & Wensong Zhang & Chenyu Fan & Bin Yon, 2023. "Satellites reveal hotspots of global river extent change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Mauricio Marrone & Martina K Linnenluecke, 2020. "Interdisciplinary Research Maps: A new technique for visualizing research topics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-16, November.
    9. Egerer, Sabine & Puente, Andrea Fajardo & Peichl, Michael & Rakovec, Oldrich & Samaniego, Luis & Schneider, Uwe A., 2023. "Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    10. Pere Quintana-Seguí & Anaïs Barella-Ortiz & Sabela Regueiro-Sanfiz & Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, 2020. "The Utility of Land-Surface Model Simulations to Provide Drought Information in a Water Management Context Using Global and Local Forcing Datasets," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(7), pages 2135-2156, May.
    11. Olufemi Sunday Durowoju & Temi Emmanuel Ologunorisa & Ademola Akinbobola, 2022. "Assessing agricultural and hydrological drought vulnerability in a savanna ecological zone of Sub-Saharan Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2431-2458, April.
    12. Joachim H. Spangenberg, 2018. "Behind the Scenarios: World View, Ideologies, Philosophies. An Analysis of Hidden Determinants and Acceptance Obstacles Illustrated by the ALARM Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-22, July.
    13. Bartosz Bartkowski & Stephan Bartke, 2018. "Leverage Points for Governing Agricultural Soils: A Review of Empirical Studies of European Farmers’ Decision-Making," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-27, September.
    14. Renee Obringer & Rohini Kumar & Roshanak Nateghi, 2020. "Managing the water–electricity demand nexus in a warming climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 233-252, March.
    15. Yusuke Satoh & Kei Yoshimura & Yadu Pokhrel & Hyungjun Kim & Hideo Shiogama & Tokuta Yokohata & Naota Hanasaki & Yoshihide Wada & Peter Burek & Edward Byers & Hannes Müller Schmied & Dieter Gerten & S, 2022. "The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Egerer, Sabine & Cotera, Rodrigo Valencia & Celliers, Louis & Costa, María Máñez, 2021. "A leverage points analysis of a qualitative system dynamics model for climate change adaptation in agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    17. Moritz von Cossel & Andrea Bauerle & Meike Boob & Ulrich Thumm & Martin Elsaesser & Iris Lewandowski, 2019. "The Performance of Mesotrophic Arrhenatheretum Grassland under Different Cutting Frequency Regimes for Biomass Production in Southwest Germany," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-17, September.
    18. Leonardo V. Noto & Giuseppe Cipolla & Antonio Francipane & Dario Pumo, 2023. "Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part I): Induced Alterations on Climate Forcings and Hydrological Processes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2287-2305, May.
    19. Trnka, Miroslav & Vizina, Adam & Hanel, Martin & Balek, Jan & Fischer, Milan & Hlavinka, Petr & Semerádová, Daniela & Štěpánek, Petr & Zahradníček, Pavel & Skalák, Petr & Eitzinger, Josef & Dubrovský,, 2022. "Increasing available water capacity as a factor for increasing drought resilience or potential conflict over water resources under present and future climate conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    20. Rodrigo Valencia Cotera & Sabine Egerer & María Máñez Costa, 2022. "Identifying Strengths and Obstacles to Climate Change Adaptation in the German Agricultural Sector: A Group Model Building Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    21. Jaime Martínez-Valderrama & Javier Ibáñez Puerta, 2023. "System Dynamics Tools to Study Mediterranean Rangeland’s Sustainability," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, January.

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