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Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

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  • A. Slangen
  • M. Carson
  • C. Katsman
  • R. van de Wal
  • A. Köhl
  • L. Vermeersen
  • D. Stammer

Abstract

We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 ±0.19 m and 0.71 ±0.28 m respectively (mean ±1σ). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • A. Slangen & M. Carson & C. Katsman & R. van de Wal & A. Köhl & L. Vermeersen & D. Stammer, 2014. "Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 317-332, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:124:y:2014:i:1:p:317-332
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9
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    3. Shapoval, A. & Mouël, J.-L. Le & Courtillot, V. & Shnirman, M., 2020. "Influence of very large spatial heterogeneity on estimates of sea-level trends," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 386(C).
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    6. M. Carson & A. Köhl & D. Stammer & A. B. A. Slangen & C. A. Katsman & R. S. W. van de Wal & J. Church & N. White, 2016. "Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 269-281, January.
    7. R. C. Winter & B. G. Ruessink, 2017. "Sensitivity analysis of climate change impacts on dune erosion: case study for the Dutch Holland coast," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 685-701, April.
    8. M. Carson & A. Köhl & D. Stammer & A. A. Slangen & C. Katsman & R. W. van de Wal & J. Church & N. White, 2016. "Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 269-281, January.
    9. Roberta Paranunzio & Iulia Anton & Elisa Adirosi & Tasneem Ahmed & Luca Baldini & Carlo Brandini & Filippo Giannetti & Cécil Meulenberg & Alberto Ortolani & Francesco Pilla & Gregorio Iglesias & Salem, 2023. "A New Approach towards a User-Driven Coastal Climate Service to Enhance Climate Resilience in European Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, December.
    10. Jasper Verschuur & Dewi Bars & Caroline A. Katsman & Sierd de Vries & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Sybren S. Drijfhout & Stefan G. J. Aarninkhof, 2020. "Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 859-876, September.
    11. Tony E. Wong & Alexander M. R. Bakker & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 347-364, September.
    12. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Anders Levermann & Malte Meinshausen, 2014. "Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 579-586, December.
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