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Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century

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  • M. Carson
  • A. Köhl
  • D. Stammer
  • A. A. Slangen
  • C. Katsman
  • R. W. van de Wal
  • J. Church
  • N. White

Abstract

Timeseries of observed and projected sea level changes for the 20th and 21st century are analyzed at various coastal locations around the world that are vulnerable to climate change. Observed time series are from tide gauges and altimetry, as well as from reconstructions over the last 50 years. CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean model output of regional sea-level and associated uncertainty estimates are merged with scenario-independent contributions from GIA and dynamic ice to provide time series of coastal sea-level projections to the end of the 21st century. We focus on better quantifying the regional departure of coastal sea level rise from its global average, identify the reasons for the regional departure, and quantify the reasons for the uncertainty in these regional projections. Many of these coastal sea level projections are lower than the global mean change in sea level due to glacial isostatic adjustment, and gravitational changes from loss of land ice and terrestrially stored ground water. In most coastal regions, local deviations from the global mean vary up to ±20 cm which, depending on the location, differ substantially in their underlying causes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • M. Carson & A. Köhl & D. Stammer & A. A. Slangen & C. Katsman & R. W. van de Wal & J. Church & N. White, 2016. "Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 269-281, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:134:y:2016:i:1:p:269-281
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1520-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Slangen & M. Carson & C. Katsman & R. van de Wal & A. Köhl & L. Vermeersen & D. Stammer, 2014. "Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 317-332, May.
    2. Kewei Lyu & Xuebin Zhang & John A. Church & Aimée B. A. Slangen & Jianyu Hu, 2014. "Time of emergence for regional sea-level change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1006-1010, November.
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    6. Caroline Katsman & A. Sterl & J. Beersma & H. Brink & J. Church & W. Hazeleger & R. Kopp & D. Kroon & J. Kwadijk & R. Lammersen & J. Lowe & M. Oppenheimer & H. Plag & J. Ridley & H. Storch & D. Vaugha, 2011. "Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 617-645, December.
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    5. Déborah Idier & Jérémy Rohmer & Rodrigo Pedreros & Sylvestre Roy & Jérome Lambert & Jessie Louisor & Gonéri Cozannet & Erwan Cornec, 2020. "Coastal flood: a composite method for past events characterisation providing insights in past, present and future hazards—joining historical, statistical and modelling approaches," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(2), pages 465-501, March.

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