IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v117y2023i3d10.1007_s11069-023-05939-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast

Author

Listed:
  • Kai Parker

    (USGS, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center)

  • Li Erikson

    (USGS, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center)

  • Jennifer Thomas

    (USGS, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center)

  • Kees Nederhoff

    (Deltares USA)

  • Patrick Barnard

    (USGS, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center)

  • Sanne Muis

    (Deltares
    Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

A 38-year hindcast water-level product is developed for the US Southeast Atlantic coastline from the entrance of Chesapeake Bay to the southeast tip of Florida. The water-level modeling framework utilized in this study combines a global-scale hydrodynamic model (Global Tide and Surge Model, GTSM-ERA5), a novel ensemble-based tide model, a parameterized wave setup model, and statistical corrections applied to improve modeled water-level components. Corrected water-level data are found to be skillful, with an RMSE of 13 cm, when compared to observed water-level measurement at tide gauge locations. The largest errors in the hindcast are location-based and typically found in the tidal component of the model. Extreme water levels across the region are driven by compound events, in this case referring to combined surge, tide, and wave forcing. However, the relative importance of water-level components varies spatially, such that tides are found to be more important in the center of the study region, non-tidal residual water levels to the north, and wave setup in the north and south. Hurricanes drive the most extreme water-level events within the study area, but non-hurricane events define the low to mid-level recurrence interval water-level events. This study presents a robust analysis of the complex oceanographic factors that drive coastal flood events. This dataset will support a variety of critical coastal research goals including research related to coastal hazards, landscape change, and community risk assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Parker & Li Erikson & Jennifer Thomas & Kees Nederhoff & Patrick Barnard & Sanne Muis, 2023. "Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2219-2248, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:117:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05939-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05939-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-023-05939-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-023-05939-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asbury H. Sallenger & Kara S. Doran & Peter A. Howd, 2012. "Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(12), pages 884-888, December.
    2. Angélique Melet & Benoit Meyssignac & Rafael Almar & Gonéri Le Cozannet, 2018. "Under-estimated wave contribution to coastal sea-level rise," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(3), pages 234-239, March.
    3. Okmyung Bin & Ben Poulter & Christopher F. Dumas & John C. Whitehead, 2011. "Measuring The Impact Of Sea‐Level Rise On Coastal Real Estate: A Hedonic Property Model Approach," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 751-767, October.
    4. Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel, 2016. "Grey swan tropical cyclones," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 106-111, January.
    5. Ning Lin & Reza Marsooli & Brian A. Colle, 2019. "Storm surge return levels induced by mid-to-late-twenty-first-century extratropical cyclones in the Northeastern United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 143-158, May.
    6. Philip J. Ward & Brenden Jongman & Peter Salamon & Alanna Simpson & Paul Bates & Tom De Groeve & Sanne Muis & Erin Coughlan de Perez & Roberto Rudari & Mark A. Trigg & Hessel C. Winsemius, 2015. "Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 712-715, August.
    7. T. Wahl & I. D. Haigh & R. J. Nicholls & A. Arns & S. Dangendorf & J. Hinkel & A. B. A. Slangen, 2017. "Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Defne, Zafer & Haas, Kevin A. & Fritz, Hermann M., 2009. "Wave power potential along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern USA," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2197-2205.
    9. Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel & Michael Oppenheimer & Erik Vanmarcke, 2012. "Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 462-467, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Zhuo Zhang & Changsheng Chen & Zhiyao Song & Dong Zhang & Di Hu & Fei Guo, 2020. "A FVCOM study of the potential coastal flooding in apponagansett bay and clarks cove, Dartmouth Town (MA)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2787-2809, September.
    3. James Neumann & Kerry Emanuel & Sai Ravela & Lindsay Ludwig & Paul Kirshen & Kirk Bosma & Jeremy Martinich, 2015. "Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: new economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 337-349, March.
    4. Annette Grilli & Malcolm L. Spaulding & Bryan A. Oakley & Chris Damon, 2017. "Mapping the coastal risk for the next century, including sea level rise and changes in the coastline: application to Charlestown RI, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 389-414, August.
    5. Reza Marsooli & Ning Lin, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2153-2171, December.
    6. Ming Li & Fan Zhang & Samuel Barnes & Xiaohong Wang, 2020. "Assessing storm surge impacts on coastal inundation due to climate change: case studies of Baltimore and Dorchester County in Maryland," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2561-2588, September.
    7. Xiaotong Sui & Mingzhao Hu & Haoyun Wang & Lingdi Zhao, 2023. "Improved elasticity estimation model for typhoon storm surge losses in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2363-2381, March.
    8. Tina Dura & Andra J. Garner & Robert Weiss & Robert E. Kopp & Simon E. Engelhart & Robert C. Witter & Richard W. Briggs & Charles S. Mueller & Alan R. Nelson & Benjamin P. Horton, 2021. "Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Yuki Miura & Huda Qureshi & Chanyang Ryoo & Philip C. Dinenis & Jiao Li & Kyle T. Mandli & George Deodatis & Daniel Bienstock & Heather Lazrus & Rebecca Morss, 2021. "A methodological framework for determining an optimal coastal protection strategy against storm surges and sea level rise," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1821-1843, June.
    10. Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S. & Thompson, Alexandra & Han, Xianru & Post, Jessica & Miller, Jarrod & Newburn, David & Gedan, Keryn & Tully, Kate, 2023. "Coastal agricultural land use response to sea level rise and saltwater intrusion," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335970, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Jung-A Yang & Sooyoul Kim & Sangyoung Son & Nobuhito Mori & Hajime Mase, 2020. "Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 425-442, September.
    12. Byungdoo Kim & David L. Kay & Jonathon P. Schuldt, 2021. "Will I have to move because of climate change? Perceived likelihood of weather- or climate-related relocation among the US public," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-8, March.
    13. Soomere, Tarmo & Eelsalu, Maris, 2014. "On the wave energy potential along the eastern Baltic Sea coast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 221-233.
    14. Junli Xu & Yuhong Zhang & Xianqing Lv & Qiang Liu, 2019. "Inversion of Wind-Stress Drag Coefficient in Simulating Storm Surges by Means of Regularization Technique," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-16, September.
    15. Ceferino, Luis & Lin, Ning & Xi, Dazhi, 2023. "Bayesian updating of solar panel fragility curves and implications of higher panel strength for solar generation resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    16. Austin Becker & Michele Acciaro & Regina Asariotis & Edgard Cabrera & Laurent Cretegny & Philippe Crist & Miguel Esteban & Andrew Mather & Steve Messner & Susumu Naruse & Adolf Ng & Stefan Rahmstorf &, 2013. "A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 683-695, October.
    17. Defne, Zafer & Haas, Kevin A. & Fritz, Hermann M., 2011. "GIS based multi-criteria assessment of tidal stream power potential: A case study for Georgia, USA," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 2310-2321, June.
    18. Yi‐Ping Fang & Giovanni Sansavini & Enrico Zio, 2019. "An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 1949-1969, September.
    19. Rusu, Liliana & Guedes Soares, C., 2012. "Wave energy assessments in the Azores islands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 183-196.
    20. Nori Tarui & Seth Urbanski & Quang Loc Lam & Makena Coffman & Conrad Newfield, 2023. "Sea level rise risk interactions with coastal property values: a case study of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-21, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:117:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05939-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.