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Tropical or extratropical cyclones: what drives the compound flood hazard, impact, and risk for the United States Southeast Atlantic coast?

Author

Listed:
  • Kees Nederhoff

    (Deltares USA
    UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education
    Delft University of Technology)

  • Tim W. B. Leijnse

    (Deltares)

  • Kai Parker

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Jennifer Thomas

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Andrea O’Neill

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Maarten Ormondt

    (Deltares USA)

  • Robert McCall

    (Deltares)

  • Li Erikson

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Patrick L. Barnard

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Amy Foxgrover

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Wouter Klessens

    (Deltares)

  • Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo

    (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE))

  • Thomas Chris Massey

    (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE))

Abstract

Subtropical coastlines are impacted by both tropical and extratropical cyclones. While both may lead to substantial damage to coastal communities, it is difficult to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to coastal flooding relative to that of extratropical cyclones. We conduct a large-scale flood hazard and impact assessment across the subtropical Southeast Atlantic Coast of the United States, from Virginia to Florida, including different flood hazards. The physics-based hydrodynamic modeling skillfully reproduces coastal water levels based on a comprehensive validation of tides, almost two hundred historical storms, and an in-depth hindcast of Hurricane Florence. We show that yearly flood impacts are two times as likely to be driven by extratropical than tropical cyclones. On the other hand, tropical cyclones are 30 times more likely to affect people during rarer 100-year events than extratropical cyclones and contribute to more than half of the regional flood risk. With increasing sea levels, more areas will be flooded, regardless of whether flooding is driven by tropical or extratropical cyclones. Most of the absolute flood risk is contained in the greater Miami metropolitan area. However, several less populous counties have the highest relative risks. The results of this study provide critical information for understanding the source and frequency of compound flooding across the Southeast Atlantic Coast of the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Kees Nederhoff & Tim W. B. Leijnse & Kai Parker & Jennifer Thomas & Andrea O’Neill & Maarten Ormondt & Robert McCall & Li Erikson & Patrick L. Barnard & Amy Foxgrover & Wouter Klessens & Norberto C. N, 2024. "Tropical or extratropical cyclones: what drives the compound flood hazard, impact, and risk for the United States Southeast Atlantic coast?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(9), pages 8779-8825, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:9:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06552-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06552-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kai Parker & Li Erikson & Jennifer Thomas & Kees Nederhoff & Patrick Barnard & Sanne Muis, 2023. "Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2219-2248, July.
    2. Thomas Wahl & Shaleen Jain & Jens Bender & Steven D. Meyers & Mark E. Luther, 2015. "Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1093-1097, December.
    3. A. Sebastian & D. J. Bader & C. M. Nederhoff & T. W. B. Leijnse & J. D. Bricker & S. G. J. Aarninkhof, 2021. "Hindcast of pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood damage in Houston, Texas during Hurricane Harvey (2017) using SFINCS," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(3), pages 2343-2362, December.
    4. Roshanka Ranasinghe & David Callaghan & Marcel Stive, 2012. "Estimating coastal recession due to sea level rise: beyond the Bruun rule," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 561-574, February.
    5. Rei Chemke & Yi Ming & Janni Yuval, 2022. "The intensification of winter mid-latitude storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(6), pages 553-557, June.
    6. Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel, 2016. "Grey swan tropical cyclones," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 106-111, January.
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    1. Md Jamal Uddin Khan & Fabien Durand & M. Afroosa & Paul Coulet & Xavier Bertin & Valerie Mueller & Yann Krien & Caroline Wainwright, 2025. "Tropical cyclone induced compound flooding in Madagascar: a coupled modeling approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(9), pages 11013-11050, May.

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