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Grey swan tropical cyclones

Author

Listed:
  • Ning Lin

    (Princeton University)

  • Kerry Emanuel

    (Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

We define ‘grey swan’ tropical cyclones as high-impact storms that would not be predicted based on history but may be foreseeable using physical knowledge together with historical data. Here we apply a climatological–hydrodynamic method to estimate grey swan tropical cyclone storm surge threat for three highly vulnerable coastal regions. We identify a potentially large risk in the Persian Gulf, where tropical cyclones have never been recorded, and larger-than-expected threats in Cairns, Australia, and Tampa, Florida. Grey swan tropical cyclones striking Tampa, Cairns and Dubai can generate storm surges of about 6 m, 5.7 m and 4 m, respectively, with estimated annual exceedance probabilities of about 1/10,000. With climate change, these probabilities can increase significantly over the twenty-first century (to 1/3,100–1/1,100 in the middle and 1/2,500–1/700 towards the end of the century for Tampa). Worse grey swan tropical cyclones, inducing surges exceeding 11 m in Tampa and 7 m in Dubai, are also revealed with non-negligible probabilities, especially towards the end of the century.

Suggested Citation

  • Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel, 2016. "Grey swan tropical cyclones," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 106-111, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:6:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1038_nclimate2777
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2777
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    Cited by:

    1. Susana Lincoln & Paul Buckley & Ella L. Howes & Katherine M. Maltby & John K. Pinnegar & Thamer S. Ali & Yousef Alosairi & Alanoud Al-Ragum & Alastair Baglee & Chiden Oseo Balmes & Radhouane Ben Hamad, 2021. "A Regional Review of Marine and Coastal Impacts of Climate Change on the ROPME Sea Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-34, December.
    2. Annette Grilli & Malcolm L. Spaulding & Bryan A. Oakley & Chris Damon, 2017. "Mapping the coastal risk for the next century, including sea level rise and changes in the coastline: application to Charlestown RI, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 389-414, August.
    3. Wing Shan Kan & Raul P. Lejano, 2021. "How Land Use, Climate Change, and an Ageing Demographic Intersect to Create New Vulnerabilities in Hong Kong," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-8, April.
    4. Christian M. Appendini & Rafael Meza-Padilla & Said Abud-Russell & Sébastien Proust & Roberto E. Barrios & Fernando Secaira-Fajardo, 2019. "Effect of climate change over landfalling hurricanes at the Yucatan Peninsula," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 469-482, December.
    5. Thomas R. Mortlock & Jonathan Nott & Ryan Crompton & Valentina Koschatzky, 2023. "A long-term view of tropical cyclone risk in Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(1), pages 571-588, August.
    6. Glette-Iversen, Ingrid & Aven, Terje, 2021. "On the meaning of and relationship between dragon-kings, black swans and related concepts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    7. Kai Parker & Li Erikson & Jennifer Thomas & Kees Nederhoff & Patrick Barnard & Sanne Muis, 2023. "Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2219-2248, July.
    8. Zheng, Zhonghua & Zhao, Lei & Oleson, Keith W., 2020. "Large model parameter and structural uncertainties in global projections of urban heat waves," Earth Arxiv f5pwa, Center for Open Science.

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