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Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: new economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy

Author

Listed:
  • James Neumann

  • Kerry Emanuel
  • Sai Ravela
  • Lindsay Ludwig
  • Paul Kirshen
  • Kirk Bosma
  • Jeremy Martinich

Abstract

Recent literature, the US Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment, and recent events, such as Hurricane Sandy, highlight the need to take better account of both storm surge and sea-level rise (SLR) in assessing coastal risks of climate change. This study combines three models—a tropical cyclone simulation model; a storm surge model; and a model for economic impact and adaptation—to estimate the joint effects of storm surge and SLR for the US coast through 2100. The model is tested using multiple SLR scenarios, including those incorporating estimates of dynamic ice-sheet melting, two global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy scenarios, and multiple general circulation model climate sensitivities. The results illustrate that a large area of coastal land and property is at risk of damage from storm surge today; that land area and economic value at risk expands over time as seas rise and as storms become more intense; that adaptation is a cost-effective response to this risk, but residual impacts remain after adaptation measures are in place; that incorporating site-specific episodic storm surge increases national damage estimates by a factor of two relative to SLR-only estimates, with greater impact on the East and Gulf coasts; and that mitigation of GHGs contributes to significant lessening of damages. For a mid-range climate-sensitivity scenario that incorporates dynamic ice sheet melting, the approach yields national estimates of the impacts of storm surge and SLR of $990 billion through 2100 (net of adaptation, cumulative undiscounted 2005$); GHG mitigation policy reduces the impacts of the mid-range climate-sensitivity estimates by $84 to $100 billion. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • James Neumann & Kerry Emanuel & Sai Ravela & Lindsay Ludwig & Paul Kirshen & Kirk Bosma & Jeremy Martinich, 2015. "Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: new economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 337-349, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:129:y:2015:i:1:p:337-349
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Asbury H. Sallenger & Kara S. Doran & Peter A. Howd, 2012. "Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(12), pages 884-888, December.
    2. Daiju Narita & Richard Tol & David Anthoff, 2010. "Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: an application of FUND," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 371-384.
    3. Robert Mendelsohn & Kerry Emanuel & Shun Chonabayashi & Laura Bakkensen, 2012. "The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 205-209, March.
    4. Paul Kirshen & Samuel Merrill & Peter Slovinsky & Norman Richardson, 2012. "Simplified method for scenario-based risk assessment adaptation planning in the coastal zone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 919-931, August.
    5. Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel & Michael Oppenheimer & Erik Vanmarcke, 2012. "Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 462-467, June.
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