IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/2286.html

A magyar fogyasztói és üzleti bizalom makrogazdasági vonatkozásai
[Macroeconomic implications of Hungarian consumer and business confidence]

Author

Listed:
  • Varga, János Zoltán

  • Soós, Gábor Dániel

Abstract

A tanulmány célja kettős: egyrészt azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a makrogazdasági stabilitás/bizonytalanság hogyan hat a reálgazdaságra Magyarországon, másrészt pedig azt, hogy magát a bizonytalanságot milyen konkrét makrogazdasági tényezők befolyásolják. Eredményeink szerint a bizalom szintjét nemcsak a gazdasági indikátorok értékei, hanem azok ingadozásai is szignifikánsan befolyásolják. Minél nagyobb a makrogazdasági változók volatilitása, annál kisebb a bizalom szintje. Az infláció, az árfolyam, a bérnövekedés és a kamatkörnyezet ingadozása is formálja a gazdasági szereplők bizalmát. Továbbá Granger-okság és kointegrációs-hibakorrekciós modellek szerint a bizalmi mutatók érdemi addicionális információt hordoznak a reálgazdasági folyamatok modellezésére. A bizonytalanságot így összekapcsoltuk a bizalmi indexeken keresztül a reálgazdaság alakulásával: a kisebb bizonytalanság az erősebb bizalmon keresztül támogatja a fogyasztást és a beruházásokat; a háztartási és vállalati döntésekben a stabilitás önmagában érték.

Suggested Citation

  • Varga, János Zoltán & Soós, Gábor Dániel, 2025. "A magyar fogyasztói és üzleti bizalom makrogazdasági vonatkozásai [Macroeconomic implications of Hungarian consumer and business confidence]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1179-1206.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2286
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2025.12.1179
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=2286
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18414/KSZ.2025.12.1179?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fagereng, Andreas & Onshuus, Helene & Torstensen, Kjersti N., 2024. "The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: Evidence from Norwegian households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    3. Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
    4. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198759980.
    5. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    6. Crawley, Edmund & Theloudis, Alexandros, 2024. "Income Shocks and their Transmission into Consumption," Discussion Paper 2024-012, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Atsuo Utaka, 2003. "Confidence and the real economy - the Japanese case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 337-342.
    8. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    9. repec:cii:cepiei:2013-q2-134-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ramalho, Esmeralda A. & Caleiro, António & Dionfsio, Andreia, 2011. "Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 25-32, February.
    11. Sule Alan & Martin Browning & Mette Ejrnæs, 2018. "Income and Consumption: A Micro Semistructural Analysis with Pervasive Heterogeneity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(5), pages 1827-1864.
    12. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1998. "Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-81, March.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    14. Jongrim Ha & Inhwan So, 2023. "Global Confidence, Uncertainty, and Business Cycles," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 451-493, March.
    15. P�r Österholm, 2014. "Survey data and short-term forecasts of Swedish GDP growth," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 135-139, January.
    16. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    17. Vuchelen, Jef, 2004. "Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 493-506, August.
    18. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-1377, June.
    19. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Geoff Kenny & Michael Weber, 2024. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(3), pages 645-677, March.
    20. Stephane Dees & Pedro Soares Brinca, 2013. "Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro area," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 134, pages 1-14.
    21. János Zoltan Varga, 2021. "Effects of the financial crisis and low interest rate environment on interest rate pass-through in Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 71(4), pages 551-567, December.
    22. Maddala,G. S. & Kim,In-Moo, 1999. "Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521587822, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(1), pages 53-85, June.
    2. Eleni Zafeiriou & Constantinos Katrakilidis & Chrysanthi Pegiou, 2019. "Consumer Confidence on Heating Oil Prices: An Empirical Study of their Relationship for European Union in a Nonlinear Framework," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 63-90.
    3. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard & Møller, Stig Vinther, 2014. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 459-468.
    4. Andresa Lagerborg & Evi Pappa & Morten O Ravn, 2023. "Sentimental Business Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(3), pages 1358-1393.
    5. Sarah Gelper & Aurelie Lemmens & Christophe Croux, 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending: decomposing the Granger causal relationship in the time domain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 1-11.
    6. Blanka Škrabić Perić & Petar Sorić, 2018. "A Note on the “Economic Policy Uncertainty Index”," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 137(2), pages 505-526, June.
    7. Camilo Alberto Cárdenas-Hurtado & María Alejandra Hernández-Montes, 2019. "Understanding the Consumer Confidence Index in Colombia: A structural FAVAR analysis," Borradores de Economia 1063, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. GORMUS Sakir & GUNES, Sevcan, 2010. "Consumer Confidence, Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: The Case Of Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
    9. Caglayan, Mustafa & Xu, Bing, 2016. "Sentiment volatility and bank lending behavior," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 107-120.
    10. Qiu, Yue, 2020. "Forecasting the Consumer Confidence Index with tree-based MIDAS regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 247-256.
    11. Gelper, S. & Lemmens, A. & Croux, C., 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending : Decomposing the granger causal relationship in the time domain," Other publications TiSEM 55ac7230-2985-41f1-a42c-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Simona Malovaná & Martin Hodula & Jan Frait, 2021. "What Does Really Drive Consumer Confidence?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 885-913, June.
    13. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    14. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2016. "Does consumer confidence affect durable goods spending during bad and good economic times equally?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 86-97.
    15. Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
    16. Erik Kole & Liesbeth Noordegraaf-Eelens & Bas Vringer, 2019. "Cognitive Biases and Consumer Sentiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-031/I, Tinbergen Institute, revised 21 Mar 2023.
    17. Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian, 2014. "Towards a consumer sentiment channel of monetary policy," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 91, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    18. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
    19. Shapiro, Adam Hale & Sudhof, Moritz & Wilson, Daniel J., 2022. "Measuring news sentiment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 221-243.
    20. Sangyup Choi & Jaehun Jeong & Dohyeon Park & Donghoon Yoo, 2024. "News or animal spirits? Consumer confidence and economic activity: Redux," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 960-966, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Odon Sok to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.