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Inflation and political instability in eight Latin American countries 1946-83

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  • Martin Paldam

Abstract

The path of consumer price rises is compared with data for the incidence of political change and the frequency of military regimes from 1946 to 1984 for the following countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. A highly significant connection between the frequency of military government and the level of inflation is found. This appears to be due to two other significant results: (i) The military regimes are relatively unstable ones. (ii) Inflation normally turns upwards under civilian and downwards under military regimes, i.e., the military regimes are relatively strong in fighting inflation. Finally, it is demonstrated that few regimes survive a spell of hyperinflation. Copyright Martinus Nijhoff Publishers 1987

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Paldam, 1987. "Inflation and political instability in eight Latin American countries 1946-83," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 143-168, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:52:y:1987:i:2:p:143-168
    DOI: 10.1007/BF00123874
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Robert E. Hall, 1982. "Inflation: Causes and Effects," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hall82-1, March.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Kazeem Bello Ajide & Olorunfemi Yasiru Alimi, 2023. "Inflation, inflation volatility and terrorism in Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 493-509, January.
    4. Bennett, Daniel L. & Bjørnskov, Christian & Gohmann, Stephan F., 2021. "Coups, regime transitions, and institutional consequences," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 627-643.
    5. Hibrahim LIMI KOUOTOU, 2022. "L’effet du conflit de générations entre chef d’Etat et population sur les risques d’instabilité politique en Afrique," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 56, pages 25-40.
    6. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2011. "Consequences of Political Instability, Governance and Bureaucratic Corruption on Inflation and Growth: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 773-807.
    7. Manoel Bittencourt, 2009. "Polarisation, Populism and Hyperinflation[s]: Some Evidence from Latin America," Working Papers 200921, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & João Tovar Jalles & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2017. "Income inequality, fiscal stimuli and political (in)stability," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(3), pages 484-511, June.
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    10. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2011. "Political instability and inflation in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 540-549.
    11. Bittencourt, Manoel & Gupta, Rangan & Makena, Philton & Stander, Lardo, 2022. "Socio-political instability and growth dynamics," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    12. Giovanni B. Pittaluga & Elena Seghezza & Pierluigi Morelli, 2021. "The political economy of hyperinflation in Venezuela," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 337-350, March.
    13. Bittencourt, Manoel, 2010. "Democracy, Populism and Hyperinflation[s]: Evidence from Latin America," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 47, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    14. Khani Hoolari, Seyed Morteza & Abounoori, Abbas Ali & Mohammadi, Teymour, 2014. "The Effect of Governance and Political Instability Determinants on Inflation in Iran," MPRA Paper 55827, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2014.
    15. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "The (Asymmetric) effect of El Niño and La Niña on gold and silver prices in a GVAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Chun-Ping Chang & Aziz N. Berdiev, 2015. "Do natural disasters increase the likelihood that a government is replaced?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(17), pages 1788-1808, April.
    17. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Witthuhn, Stefan, 2017. "Corruption and political stability: Does the youth bulge matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 47-70.
    18. Florence Barugahara, 2015. "The Impact of Political Instability on Inflation Volatility in Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(1), pages 56-73, March.
    19. Mohammad Abdul Munim Joarder & A. K. M. Nurul Hossain & Monir Uddin Ahmed, 2016. "Does the central bank contribute to the political monetary cycles in Bangladesh?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 365-394, November.
    20. Khurana, Ritika & Mugabe, Douglas & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2022. "Climate change, natural disasters, and institutional integrity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    21. Bennett, Daniel L. & Bjørnskov, Christian & Gohmann, Stephan F., 2019. "Coups, Regime Transitions, and Institutional Change," Working Paper Series 1281, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    22. Ummya Salma & Md. Fazlul Huq Khan, 2023. "The Connection Between Political Stability and Inflation: Insights from Four South Asian Nations," Papers 2310.08415, arXiv.org.

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