IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/pubcho/v200y2024i3d10.1007_s11127-023-01092-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

You can’t always get what you want: why revolutionary outcomes so often diverge from revolutionary goals

Author

Listed:
  • Jack A. Goldstone

    (George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government)

Abstract

Revolutions rarely achieve their expressed goals, which often include greater economic prosperity, a more egalitarian distribution of rewards, ending corruption, and a less oppressive state. Yet there is no single reason for this, as revolutions of many types—violent and non-violent, radical and moderate—can produce similar outcomes. We explain this by treating revolutionary outcomes as the result of a decision tree process, in which outcomes are reached by a series of steps in which only the initial state of each step and the events at that junction determine the subsequent step. This simplification allows us to identify numerous pathways by which revolutions can unfold. However, relatively few such trajectories lead to stable constitutional regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jack A. Goldstone, 2024. "You can’t always get what you want: why revolutionary outcomes so often diverge from revolutionary goals," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(3), pages 457-472, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:200:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s11127-023-01092-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-023-01092-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11127-023-01092-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11127-023-01092-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicolas Olsson-Yaouzis, 2012. "An evolutionary dynamic of revolutions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 497-515, June.
    2. Gordon Tullock, 1971. "The paradox of revolution," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 89-99, September.
    3. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Gerard Roland, 2021. "Culture, institutions and democratization," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 165-195, April.
    4. Bruce Bueno De Mesquita & Alastair Smith, 2010. "Leader Survival, Revolutions, and the Nature of Government Finance," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(4), pages 936-950, October.
    5. Zhaotian Luo & Adam Przeworski, 2023. "Democracy and its Vulnerabilities: Dynamics of Democratic Backsliding," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 18(1), pages 105-130, February.
    6. Timur Kuran, 1989. "Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 41-74, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Apolte, Thomas, 2015. "Autocracy and the public: Mass revolts, winning coalitions, and policy control in dictatorships," CIW Discussion Papers 5/2015, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    2. Andrew Marcum & David Skarbek, 2014. "Why didn’t slaves revolt more often during the Middle Passage?," Rationality and Society, , vol. 26(2), pages 236-262, May.
    3. Apolte, Thomas, 2022. "Mass protests, security-elite defection, and revolution," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 981-996.
    4. Apolte, Thomas, 2015. "Gordon Tullock's theory of dictatorship and revolution," CIW Discussion Papers 2/2015, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    5. Apolte, Thomas, 2015. "Abused rebels and winning coalitions: Regime change under the pressure of rebellions," CIW Discussion Papers 1/2015, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    6. Thomas Apolte, 2016. "Gordon Tullock’s theory of revolution and dictatorship," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 158-178, June.
    7. Pierre Courtois & Rabia Nessah & Tarik Tazdaït, 2024. "Revolutions and rational choice: A critical discussion," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(3), pages 497-529, September.
    8. Louis Rouanet, 2024. "On the tendency of revolutions to devour their own children," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(3), pages 603-626, September.
    9. Alessandro Moro, 2016. "Understanding the Dynamics of Violent Political Revolutions in an Agent-Based Framework," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, April.
    10. Thomas Apolte, "undated". "Why is there no Revolution in North-Korea? The Political Economy of Revolution Revisited," Working Papers 200102, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    11. Leeson, Peter T., 2010. "Rational choice, Round Robin, and rebellion: An institutional solution to the problems of revolution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 297-307, March.
    12. Dorsch, Michael & Maarek, Paul, 2012. "Inefficient predation, information, and contagious institutional change," MPRA Paper 38759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kjell Hausken & Mthuli Ncube, 2017. "Incumbent policy, benefits provision, and the triggering and spread of revolutionary uprisings," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 54-63, April.
    14. Apolte, Thomas, 2014. "Youth bulges, insurrections, and politico-economic institutions," CIW Discussion Papers 2/2014, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    15. Shaun Larcom & Mare Sarr & Tim Willems, 2018. "Dictators Walking the Mogadishu Line: How Men Become Monsters and Monsters Become Men," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 584-609.
    16. Mark I. Lichbach, 1994. "Rethinking Rationality and Rebellion," Rationality and Society, , vol. 6(1), pages 8-39, January.
    17. Boris Ginzburg & José-Alberto Guerra, 2021. "Guns, pets, and strikes: an experiment on identity and political action," Documentos CEDE 19932, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    18. Aidt, Toke S. & Albornoz, Facundo & Gassebner, Martin, 2018. "The golden hello and political transitions," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 157-173.
    19. DiPasquale, Denise & Glaeser, Edward L., 1998. "The Los Angeles Riot and the Economics of Urban Unrest," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 52-78, January.
    20. Geloso, Vincent & Kufenko, Vadim, 2019. "Can markets foster rebellion? The case of the 1837–38 rebellions in Lower Canada," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 263-287.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:200:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s11127-023-01092-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.