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Investigating Risky Choices Over Losses Using Experimental Data

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  • Charles Mason
  • Jason Shogren
  • Chad Settle
  • John List

Abstract

We conduct a battery of experiments in which agents make choices from several pairs of all-loss-lotteries. Using these choices, we estimate a representation of individual preferences over lotteries. We find statistically and economically significant departures from expected utility maximization for many subjects. We also estimate a preference representation based on summary statistics for behavior in the population of subjects, and again find departures from expected utility maximization. Our results suggest that public policies based on an expected utility approach could significantly underestimate preferences and willingness to pay for risk reduction. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Mason & Jason Shogren & Chad Settle & John List, 2005. "Investigating Risky Choices Over Losses Using Experimental Data," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 187-215, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:31:y:2005:i:2:p:187-215
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-005-3554-7
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    7. List, John A. & Mason, Charles F., 2011. "Are CEOs expected utility maximizers?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 114-123, May.
    8. Richard T. Carson & Theodore Groves & John A. List, 2014. "Consequentiality: A Theoretical and Experimental Exploration of a Single Binary Choice," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 171-207.
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    12. Berns, Gregory S. & Capra, C. Monica & Moore, Sara & Noussair, Charles, 2007. "A shocking experiment: New evidence on probability weighting and common ratio violations," Judgment and Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 234-242, August.
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    15. Bartczak, Anna & Chilton, Susan & Meyerhoff, Jürgen, 2015. "Wildfires in Poland: The impact of risk preferences and loss aversion on environmental choices," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 300-309.
    16. Ashish K. Rathore & Arpan K. Kar & P. Vigneswara Ilavarasan, 2017. "Social Media Analytics: Literature Review and Directions for Future Research," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 14(4), pages 229-249, December.
    17. Cristina OTTAVIANI & Daniela VANDONE, 2011. "Decision-making under uncertainty and demand for insurance: an empirical study," Departmental Working Papers 2011-05, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    18. Glenn W. Harrison & J. Todd Swarthout, 2016. "Cumulative Prospect Theory in the Laboratory: A Reconsideration," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2016-04, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    19. Janusch, Nicholas & Palm-Forster, Leah H. & Messer, Kent D. & Ferraro, Paul J., 2017. "Behavioral Insights for Agri-Environmental Program and Policy Design," 2018 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 5-7, 2018, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 266299, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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