Estimates, Bias and “No Sales” in Latin-American Art Auctions, 1977–1996
Estimate bias and “no-sales” are investigated in the context of Latin American Art auctions conducted in New York between 1977 and 1996. We find that, using a new method for calculating bias, both Sotheby's and Christie's overestimated art (oil-on-canvas pieces) by 2.7 percent. The inclusion of “no-sales” raises that proportion to a full one-third of the art traded. Utilizing a binomial probit analysis, moreover, we find that the estimate “window” is negatively and significantly related to the likelihood of a “no sale” at auction. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998
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