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Estimates, Bias and “No Sales” in Latin-American Art Auctions, 1977–1996

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  • Robert Ekelund
  • Rand Ressler
  • John Watson

Abstract

Estimate bias and “no-sales” are investigated in the context of Latin American Art auctions conducted in New York between 1977 and 1996. We find that, using a new method for calculating bias, both Sotheby's and Christie's overestimated art (oil-on-canvas pieces) by 2.7 percent. The inclusion of “no-sales” raises that proportion to a full one-third of the art traded. Utilizing a binomial probit analysis, moreover, we find that the estimate “window” is negatively and significantly related to the likelihood of a “no sale” at auction. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Ekelund & Rand Ressler & John Watson, 1998. "Estimates, Bias and “No Sales” in Latin-American Art Auctions, 1977–1996," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 22(1), pages 33-42, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jculte:v:22:y:1998:i:1:p:33-42
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1007471016277
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ashenfelter, Orley & Genesove, David, 1992. "Testing for Price Anomalies in Real-Estate Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 501-505, May.
    2. Ashenfelter, Orley, 1989. "How Auctions Work for Wine and Art," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 23-36, Summer.
    3. Alan Beggs & Kathryn Graddy, 1997. "Declining Values and the Afternoon Effect: Evidence from Art Auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 28(3), pages 544-565, Autumn.
    4. Milgrom, Paul R & Weber, Robert J, 1982. "A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1089-1122, September.
    5. Pesando, James E, 1993. "Art as an Investment: The Market for Modern Prints," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1075-1089, December.
    6. Leslie Singer & Gary Lynch, 1997. "Are Multiple Art Markets Rational?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 21(3), pages 197-218, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Georges & Aylin Seçkin, 2012. "Auction Prices of Classical Music Manuscripts – A Hedonic Approach," Working Papers 1202E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    2. Nauro F. Campos & Renata Leite Barbosa, 2009. "Paintings and numbers: an econometric investigation of sales rates, prices, and returns in Latin American art auctions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 28-51, January.
    3. McAndrew, Clare & Thompson, Rex, 2007. "The collateral value of fine art," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 589-607, March.
    4. Reto Cueni & Bruno S. Frey, 2014. "Forecasts and Reactivity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2014-10, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    5. Patrick Georges & Aylin Seçkin, 2013. "Black notes and white noise: a hedonic approach to auction prices of classical music manuscripts," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 37(1), pages 33-60, February.
    6. Marinelli, Nicoletta & Palomba, Giulio, 2011. "A model for pricing Italian Contemporary Art paintings at auction," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 212-224, May.
    7. Guido Candela & Paolo Figini & Antonello Scorcu, 2004. "Price Indices for Artists – A Proposal," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 28(4), pages 285-302, November.
    8. Calin Valsan & Robert Sproule, 2008. "Reservation Prices And Pre-Auction Estimates: A Study In Abstract Art," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 10(24), pages 257-272, June.
    9. L. Picci & A. E. Scorcu, 1999. "Price Dynamics in sequential auctions. New evidence using art auction data," Working Papers 352, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    10. Ünsal Özdilek, 2013. "Visual autocorrelation of prices," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 37(2), pages 203-223, May.
    11. Bruno, Brunella & Garcia-Appendini, Emilia & Nocera, Giacomo, 2016. "Experience and Brokerage in Asset Markets: Evidence from Art Auctions," Working Papers on Finance 1605, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    12. Kräussl, Roman & Mirgorodskaya, Elizaveta, 2016. "The winner's curse on art markets," CFS Working Paper Series 564, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    13. Victor Ginsburgh & Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2006. "On the computation of art indices in art," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7290, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Calin Valsan & Robert Sproule, 2006. "Hedonic Models and Pre-Auction Estimates: Abstract Art Revisited," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 26(5), pages 1-10.

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    Keywords

    art auction; Latin American art; bias;

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