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The effect of VATs on government balance sheets

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  • Alex Ufier

    (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation)

Abstract

The value-added tax, VAT, has become a popular means of raising funds for governments around the world. Countries seeking to reduce variation in tax revenues as well as raise revenue to solve deficits often consider a VAT, and the IMF in particular has become an advocate for the tax for countries seeking tax reform. For all its popularity, its ability to deliver on these promises remains understudied. Countries with a lower cost of raising funds may instead choose to spend more instead of paying down their debts. This paper uses matching techniques to estimate the impact of a VAT on government debts and deficits. The tax is associated with falls in central government debt and deficits as well as expenditures as a share of GDP. There is limited evidence of increases in tax revenue and increases in stability of government spending. The choice of VAT rate is positively correlated with deficit reduction, and the effects of the tax are heterogeneous with respect to the probability of adoption of the treatment and what taxes it is replacing.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Ufier, 2017. "The effect of VATs on government balance sheets," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(6), pages 1141-1173, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:24:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s10797-016-9406-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10797-016-9406-3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bohne, Albrecht & Koumpias, Antonios M. & Tassi, Annalisa, 2023. "Cashless payments and tax evasion: Evidence from VAT gaps in the EU," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-060, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Tommaso Giommoni & Gabriel Loumeau, 2022. "Taxation with a Grain of Salt: The Long-Term Effect of Fiscal Policy on Local Development," CESifo Working Paper Series 9997, CESifo.
    4. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2021. "Structural Tax Reforms and Public Spending Efficiency," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1017-1061, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survival analysis; Value-added tax; Matching; Debt; Deficits; Tax revenue; Heterogeneity analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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