IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormksc/v27y2008i5p829-843.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Bivariate Timing Model of Customer Acquisition and Retention

Author

Listed:
  • David A. Schweidel

    (Department of Marketing, Madison School of Business, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706)

  • Peter S. Fader

    (Department of Marketing, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Eric T. Bradlow

    (Department of Marketing, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

Abstract

Two widely recognized components, central to the calculation of customer value, are acquisition and retention propensities. However, while extant research has incorporated such components into different types of models, limited work has investigated the kinds of associations that may exist between them. In this research, we focus on the relationship between a prospective customer's time until acquisition of a particular service and the subsequent duration for which he retains it, and examine the implications of this relationship on the value of prospects and customers. To accomplish these tasks, we use a bivariate timing model to capture the relationship between acquisition and retention. Using a split-hazard model, we link the acquisition and retention processes in two distinct yet complementary ways. First, we use the Sarmonov family of bivariate distributions to allow for correlations in the observed acquisition and retention times ; next, we allow for differences customers using latent classes for the parameters that govern the two processes. We then demonstrate how the proposed methodology can be used to calculate the discounted expected value of a subscription based on the time of acquisition, and discuss possible applications of the modeling framework to problems such as customer targeting and resource allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Schweidel & Peter S. Fader & Eric T. Bradlow, 2008. "A Bivariate Timing Model of Customer Acquisition and Retention," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 829-843, 09-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:27:y:2008:i:5:p:829-843
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.1070.0328
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1070.0328
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mksc.1070.0328?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert W. Palmatier & Srinath Gopalakrishna & Mark B. Houston, 2006. "Returns on Business-to-Business Relationship Marketing Investments: Strategies for Leveraging Profits," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(5), pages 477-493, September.
    2. Berger, Paul D. & Bechwati, Nada Nasr, 2001. "The allocation of promotion budget to maximize customer equity," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 49-61, February.
    3. Sunil Gupta & Valarie Zeithaml, 2006. "Customer Metrics and Their Impact on Financial Performance," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 718-739, 11-12.
    4. Danaher, Peter J. & Hardie, Bruce G.S., 2005. "Bacon With Your Eggs? Applications of a New Bivariate Beta-Binomial Distribution," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 59, pages 282-286, November.
    5. Gabriel R. Bitran & Susana V. Mondschein, 1996. "Mailing Decisions in the Catalog Sales Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(9), pages 1364-1381, September.
    6. Roland T. Rust & Tuck Siong Chung, 2006. "Marketing Models of Service and Relationships," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 560-580, 11-12.
    7. Seetharaman, P B & Chintagunta, Pradeep K, 2003. "The Proportional Hazard Model for Purchase Timing: A Comparison of Alternative Specifications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 368-382, July.
    8. Young-Hoon Park & Peter S. Fader, 2004. "Modeling Browsing Behavior at Multiple Websites," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 280-303, May.
    9. Peter J. Danaher, 2007. "Modeling Page Views Across Multiple Websites with an Application to Internet Reach and Frequency Prediction," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(3), pages 422-437, 05-06.
    10. Wagner A. Kamakura & Bruce S. Kossar & Michel Wedel, 2004. "Identifying Innovators for the Cross-Selling of New Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(8), pages 1120-1133, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ashish Sood & Gerard J. Tellis, 2011. "Demystifying Disruption: A New Model for Understanding and Predicting Disruptive Technologies," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 339-354, 03-04.
    2. Polo, Yolanda & Sese, F. Javier & Verhoef, Peter C., 2011. "The Effect of Pricing and Advertising on Customer Retention in a Liberalizing Market," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 201-214.
    3. David A. Schweidel & George Knox, 2013. "Incorporating Direct Marketing Activity into Latent Attrition Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 471-487, May.
    4. Johannes Habel & Sascha Alavi & Nicolas Heinitz, 2023. "A theory of predictive sales analytics adoption," AMS Review, Springer;Academy of Marketing Science, vol. 13(1), pages 34-54, June.
    5. Lhoest-Snoeck, Sietske & van Nierop, Erjen & Verhoef, Peter C., 2014. "For New Customers Only: A Study on the Effect of Acquisition Campaigns on a Service Company's Existing Customers' CLV," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 210-224.
    6. Philippe Aurier & Victor D. Mejía, 2021. "The differing impacts of brand-line breadth and depth on customers’ repurchasing behavior of frequently purchased packaged goods," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 1244-1266, November.
    7. Anas Abdallah & Lan Wang, 2023. "Rank-Based Multivariate Sarmanov for Modeling Dependence between Loss Reserves," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-37, October.
    8. Yang, Yang & Ignatavičiūtė, Eglė & Šiaulys, Jonas, 2015. "Conditional tail expectation of randomly weighted sums with heavy-tailed distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 20-28.
    9. Abdallah, Anas & Boucher, Jean-Philippe & Cossette, Hélène, 2016. "Sarmanov family of multivariate distributions for bivariate dynamic claim counts model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 120-133.
    10. Yan Dong & Yuliang Yao & Tony Haitao Cui, 2011. "When Acquisition Spoils Retention: Direct Selling vs. Delegation Under CRM," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1288-1299, July.
    11. Michael Braun & David A. Schweidel, 2011. "Modeling Customer Lifetimes with Multiple Causes of Churn," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 881-902, September.
    12. Shmargad, Yotam & Watts, Jameson K.M., 2016. "When Online Visibility Deters Social Interaction: The Case of Digital Gifts," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-14.
    13. Agustín Hernández-Bastida & M. Fernández-Sánchez, 2012. "A Sarmanov family with beta and gamma marginal distributions: an application to the Bayes premium in a collective risk model," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 21(4), pages 391-409, November.
    14. Peter J. Danaher & Michael S. Smith, 2011. "Modeling Multivariate Distributions Using Copulas: Applications in Marketing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(1), pages 4-21, 01-02.
    15. David A. Schweidel & Eric T. Bradlow & Peter S. Fader, 2011. "Portfolio Dynamics for Customers of a Multiservice Provider," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 471-486, March.
    16. Chang, Chun-Wei & Zhang, Jonathan Z., 2016. "The Effects of Channel Experiences and Direct Marketing on Customer Retention in Multichannel Settings," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 77-90.
    17. Glady, Nicolas & Lemmens, Aurélie & Croux, Christophe, 2015. "Unveiling the relationship between the transaction timing, spending and dropout behavior of customers," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 78-93.
    18. repec:tiu:tiutis:52e91e47-4a2d-4e7b-bb23-3926b842ae30 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Park, Chang Hee & Park, Young-Hoon & Schweidel, David A., 2014. "A multi-category customer base analysis," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 266-279.
    20. Liu, Hongju & Pancras, Joseph & Houtz, Malcolm, 2015. "Managing Customer Acquisition Risk Using Co-operative Databases," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 39-56.
    21. Wei, Li & Yuan, Zhongyi, 2016. "The loss given default of a low-default portfolio with weak contagion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 113-123.
    22. Raluca Vernic, 2016. "On the Distribution of a Sum of Sarmanov Distributed Random Variables," Journal of Theoretical Probability, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 118-142, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roland T. Rust & Ming-Hui Huang, 2014. "The Service Revolution and the Transformation of Marketing Science," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 206-221, March.
    2. Andrés Musalem & Yogesh V. Joshi, 2009. "—How Much Should You Invest in Each Customer Relationship? A Competitive Strategic Approach," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 555-565, 05-06.
    3. Mercedes Esteban-Bravo & Jose M. Vidal-Sanz & Gökhan Yildirim, 2014. "Valuing Customer Portfolios with Endogenous Mass and Direct Marketing Interventions Using a Stochastic Dynamic Programming Decomposition," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(5), pages 621-640, September.
    4. Glady, Nicolas & Lemmens, Aurélie & Croux, Christophe, 2015. "Unveiling the relationship between the transaction timing, spending and dropout behavior of customers," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 78-93.
    5. Peter J. Danaher & Janghyuk Lee & Laoucine Kerbache, 2010. "Optimal Internet Media Selection," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 336-347, 03-04.
    6. Tarek Ben Rhouma & Georges Zaccour, 2018. "Optimal Marketing Strategies for the Acquisition and Retention of Service Subscriber," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 2609-2627, June.
    7. repec:tiu:tiutis:52e91e47-4a2d-4e7b-bb23-3926b842ae30 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. André Bonfrer & Xavier Drèze, 2009. "Real-Time Evaluation of E-mail Campaign Performance," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(2), pages 251-263, 03-04.
    9. Peter J. Danaher & Michael S. Smith, 2011. "Modeling Multivariate Distributions Using Copulas: Applications in Marketing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(1), pages 4-21, 01-02.
    10. Philipp Afèche & Mojtaba Araghi & Opher Baron, 2017. "Customer Acquisition, Retention, and Service Access Quality: Optimal Advertising, Capacity Level, and Capacity Allocation," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 674-691, October.
    11. Kim, Chul & Jun, Duk Bin & Park, Sungho, 2018. "Capturing flexible correlations in multiple-discrete choice outcomes using copulas," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 34-59.
    12. Sahar Karimi, 2021. "Cross-visiting Behaviour of Online Consumers Across Retailers’ and Comparison Sites, a Macro-Study," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 531-542, June.
    13. Verhoef, Peter C. & Venkatesan, Rajkumar & McAlister, Leigh & Malthouse, Edward C. & Krafft, Manfred & Ganesan, Shankar, 2010. "CRM in Data-Rich Multichannel Retailing Environments: A Review and Future Research Directions," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 121-137.
    14. Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Jen Shang, 2010. "Customer-Base Analysis in a Discrete-Time Noncontractual Setting," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(6), pages 1086-1108, 11-12.
    15. Konstantin Kogan & Avi Herbon & Beatrice Venturi, 2020. "Direct marketing of an event under hazards of customer saturation and forgetting," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 295(1), pages 207-227, December.
    16. Hans Buhl & Robert Klein & Johannes Kolb & Andrea Landherr, 2011. "CR 2 M—an approach for capacity control considering long-term effects on the value of a customer for the company," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 187-204, December.
    17. Steven M. Shugan, 2007. ": Does Good Marketing Cause Bad Unemployment?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(1), pages 1-17, 01-02.
    18. Christina Voets & Arnt Wöhrmann, 2011. "Risikomanagement für kundenorientierte Vermögenswerte im Spannungsfeld zwischen Steuerung und Rechnungslegung," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 447-465, April.
    19. Jura Liaukonyte & Thales Teixeira & Kenneth C. Wilbur, 2015. "Television Advertising and Online Shopping," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(3), pages 311-330, May.
    20. Seung Hyun Kim & Tridas Mukhopadhyay, 2011. "Determining Optimal CRM Implementation Strategies," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 624-639, September.
    21. George, Morris & Kumar, V. & Grewal, Dhruv, 2013. "Maximizing Profits for a Multi-Category Catalog Retailer," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 374-396.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:27:y:2008:i:5:p:829-843. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.