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Portfolio Dynamics for Customers of a Multiservice Provider

Author

Listed:
  • David A. Schweidel

    () (Wisconsin School of Business, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706)

  • Eric T. Bradlow

    () (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Peter S. Fader

    () (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

Abstract

Multiservice providers, such as telecommunication and financial service companies, can benefit from understanding how customers' service portfolios evolve over the course of their relationships. This can provide guidance for managerial issues such as customer valuation and predicting customers' future behavior, whether it is acquiring additional services, selectively dropping current services, or ending the relationship entirely. In this research, we develop a dynamic hidden Markov model to identify latent states that govern customers' affinity for the available services through which customers evolve. In addition, we incorporate and demonstrate the importance of separating two other sources of dynamics: portfolio inertia and service stickiness. We then examine the relationship between state membership and managerially relevant metrics, including customers' propensities for acquiring additional services or terminating the relationship, and customer lifetime value. Through a series of illustrative vignettes, we show that customers who have discarded a particular service may have an increased risk of canceling all services in the near future (as intuition would suggest) but also may be more prone to acquire more services, a provocative finding of interest to service providers. Our findings also emphasize the need to look beyond the previous period, as in much current research, and consider how customers have evolved over their entire relationship in order to predict their future actions. This paper was accepted by Pradeep Chintagunta, marketing.

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Schweidel & Eric T. Bradlow & Peter S. Fader, 2011. "Portfolio Dynamics for Customers of a Multiservice Provider," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 471-486, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:3:p:471-486
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1100.1284
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:joinma:v:27:y:2013:i:3:p:185-208 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Michael Braun & David A. Schweidel, 2011. "Modeling Customer Lifetimes with Multiple Causes of Churn," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 881-902, September.
    3. repec:eee:joinma:v:36:y:2016:i:c:p:77-90 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:1:p:9-:d:130922 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spr:binfse:v:60:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s12599-017-0485-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. V. Kumar & S. Sriram & Anita Luo & Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 2011. "Assessing the Effect of Marketing Investments in a Business Marketing Context," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 924-940, September.

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