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Modeling Page Views Across Multiple Websites with an Application to Internet Reach and Frequency Prediction

Listed author(s):
  • Peter J. Danaher

    ()

    (Melbourne Business School, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria 3053, Australia)

In this study, we develop a multivariate generalization of the negative binomial distribution (NBD). This new model has potential application to situations where separate NBDs are correlated, such as for page views across multiple websites. In turn, our page view model is used to predict the audience for Internet advertising campaigns. For very large Internet advertising schedules, a simple approximation to the multivariate model is also derived. In a test of nearly 3,000 Internet advertising schedules, the two new models are compared with some proprietary and nonproprietary models previously used for Internet advertising and are shown to be significantly more accurate.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1060.0226
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Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Marketing Science.

Volume (Year): 26 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (05-06)
Pages: 422-437

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Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:26:y:2007:i:3:p:422-437
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  1. Savage Scott J. & Waldman Donald M., 2004. "United States Demand for Internet Access," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-20, September.
  2. Wendy W. Moe & Peter S. Fader, 2004. "Dynamic Conversion Behavior at E-Commerce Sites," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 326-335, March.
  3. Young-Hoon Park & Peter S. Fader, 2004. "Modeling Browsing Behavior at Multiple Websites," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 280-303, May.
  4. Morrison, Donald G & Schmittlein, David C, 1988. "Generalizing the NBD Model for Customer Purchases: What Are the Implications and Is It Worth the Effort?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(2), pages 145-159, April.
  5. Esther Gal-Or & Mordechai Gal-Or, 2005. "Customized Advertising via a Common Media Distributor," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(2), pages 241-253, July.
  6. Morrison, Donald G & Schmittlein, David C, 1988. "Generalizing the NBD Model for Customer Purchases: What Are the Implications and Is It Worth the Effort? Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(2), pages 165-166, April.
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