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Aviation Demand as Covariate of Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Cointegration Estimation and Causality Analysis

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  • Bilal Mehmood

    (Government College University, Lahore, Pakistan.)

  • Zahid Irshad Younas
  • Amna Shahid

Abstract

The main purpose of the paper is to empirically examine the aviation-led growth hypothesis for Bangladesh by testing causality between aviation and economic growth. We resort to econometric tests such as unit root tests and test of cointegration purposed by Johansen (1988). Fully Modified OLS, Dynamic OLS and Conical Cointegration Regression are used to estimate the cointegration equation for time span of 1973 to 2012. Empirical results reveal the existence of relationship between aviation demand and economic growth. Graphic methods such as Cholesky Impulse Response function (both accumulated and non-accumulated) and variance decomposition have also been applied to render the analysis rigorous. The positive contribution of aviation demand to economic growth is similar in all three estimation techniques of cointegration equation. Finally Granger causality test is also applied to find the direction of causal relationship. Findings help in lime-lighting the importance of aviation industry in economic growth for a developing country like Bangladesh.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilal Mehmood & Zahid Irshad Younas & Amna Shahid, 2014. "Aviation Demand as Covariate of Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Cointegration Estimation and Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 2(8), pages 301-307, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijr:journl:v:2:y:2014:i:8:p:301-307
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bilal Mehmood & Amna Shahid & Saddam Ilyas, 2015. "Co-integration Analysis of Aviation Demand and Economic Growth in Philippines," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(6), pages 271-277, June.
    2. Oryani, Bahareh & Koo, Yoonmo & Rezania, Shahabaldin & Shafiee, Afsaneh & Khan, Muhammad Kamran & Mahdavian, Seyed Mohammadreza, 2021. "The role of electricity mix and transportation sector in designing a green-growth strategy in Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    3. Rahman, Farzana & Rahman, Md. Mahmudur, 2023. "Analyzing service quality of domestic airlines in an emerging country- Bangladesh by structural equation models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    4. Bilal MEHMOOD & Muhammad ALEEM & Nabeel SHAHZAD, 2015. "AIR-TRANSPORT AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN ASIAN COUNTRIES: An Analysis," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 25(2), pages 179-192.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aviation; Economic Growth;

    JEL classification:

    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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