IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Air transport demand and economic growth in Brazil: A time series analysis


  • Marazzo, Marcial
  • Scherre, Rafael
  • Fernandes, Elton


We investigate the relationship between air transport demand (passenger-kilometer: PAX) and economic growth (GDP) between 1966 and 2006 in Brazil. Special attention is paid to stationary features and the existence of a long-run equilibrium between variables to work in a vector autoregressive environment. Our findings suggest that GDP and PAX are co-integrated. Impulse-response analysis indicates a strong positive reaction of PAX due to a positive change in GDP. However, GDP reacts to a change in PAX in a slower and moderated way. We interpret these findings as an empirical evidence of air transport multiplier effects in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Marazzo, Marcial & Scherre, Rafael & Fernandes, Elton, 2010. "Air transport demand and economic growth in Brazil: A time series analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 261-269, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:46:y:2010:i:2:p:261-269

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Brueckner, Jan K. & Selod, Harris, 2006. "The political economy of urban transport-system choice," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(6-7), pages 983-1005, August.
    2. D Banister & S Watson & C Wood, 1997. "Sustainable cities: transport, energy, and urban form," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 24(1), pages 125-143, January.
    3. Antonio García-Ferrer & Marcos Bujosa & Aránzazu de Juan & Pilar Poncela, 2006. "Demand Forecast and Elasticities Estimation of Public Transport," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 40(1), pages 45-67, January.
    4. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert & Davidson, Russell, 1983. "Tests for model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses : Some further results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-70, January.
    5. Anna Matas, 2003. "Demand and revenue implications of an integrated public transport policy. The case of," Working Papers wpdea0304, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    6. Joyce M. Dargay & Mark Hanly, 2002. "The Demand for Local Bus Services in England," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 73-91, January.
    7. Enrique Fernández L., J. & de Cea Ch., Joaquin & Malbran, R. Henry, 2008. "Demand responsive urban public transport system design: Methodology and application," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 951-972, August.
    8. Sungyop Kim & Gudmundur Ulfarsson, 2008. "Curbing automobile use for sustainable transportation: analysis of mode choice on short home-based trips," Transportation, Springer, vol. 35(6), pages 723-737, November.
    9. Paulley, Neil & Balcombe, Richard & Mackett, Roger & Titheridge, Helena & Preston, John & Wardman, Mark & Shires, Jeremy & White, Peter, 2006. "The demand for public transport: The effects of fares, quality of service, income and car ownership," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 295-306, July.
    10. Carla Marchese, 2006. "The economic rationale for integrated tariffs in local public transport," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 40(4), pages 875-885, December.
    11. Mehdi Farsi & Aurelio Fetz & Massimo Filippini, 2007. "Economies of Scale and Scope in Local Public Transportation," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 41(3), pages 345-361, September.
    12. William Roy & Anne Yvrande-Billon, 2007. "Ownership, Contractual Practices and Technical Efficiency: The Case of Urban Public Transport in France," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 41(2), pages 257-282, May.
    13. Bresson, Georges & Dargay, Joyce & Madre, Jean-Loup & Pirotte, Alain, 2004. "Economic and structural determinants of the demand for public transport: an analysis on a panel of French urban areas using shrinkage estimators," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 269-285, May.
    14. Bruno De Borger & Kristiaan Kerstens & Álvaro Costa, 2002. "Public transit performance: What does one learn from frontier studies?," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, January.
    15. Javier Asensio, 2002. "Transport Mode Choice by Commuters to Barcelona's CBD," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 39(10), pages 1881-1895, September.
    16. Peran van Reeven, 2008. "Subsidisation of Urban Public Transport and the Mohring Effect," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 42(2), pages 349-359, May.
    17. Sasaki, Komei, 1990. "Income class, modal choice, and urban spatial structure," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 322-343, May.
    18. Fernández L., J. Enrique & de Cea Ch., Joaqui­n & de Grange C., Louis, 2005. "Production costs, congestion, scope and scale economies in urban bus transportation corridors," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 383-403, June.
    19. Kremers, Hans & Nijkamp, Peter & Rietveld, Piet, 2002. "A meta-analysis of price elasticities of transport demand in a general equilibrium framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 463-485, May.
    20. Button, Kenneth, 2006. "The political economy of parking charges in "first" and "second-best" worlds," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 470-478, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Bilal Mehmood & Amna Shahid & Saddam Ilyas, 2015. "Co-integration Analysis of Aviation Demand and Economic Growth in Philippines," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(6), pages 271-277, June.
    2. Profillidis, V. & Botzoris, G., 2015. "Air passenger transport and economic activity," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 23-27.
    3. repec:eee:transa:v:100:y:2017:i:c:p:319-336 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Wheat, Phill & Wardman, Mark, 2017. "Effects of timetable related service quality on rail demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 96-108.
    5. Dantas, Tiago Mendes & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & Varela Repolho, Hugo Miguel, 2017. "Air transportation demand forecast through Bagging Holt Winters methods," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 116-123.
    6. Bilal Mehmood & Zahid Irshad Younas & Amna Shahid, 2014. "Aviation Demand as Covariate of Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Cointegration Estimation and Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 2(8), pages 301-307, August.
    7. Lo, Winnie Wai Ling & Wan, Yulai & Zhang, Anming, 2015. "Empirical estimation of price and income elasticities of air cargo demand: The case of Hong Kong," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 309-324.
    8. Chi, Junwook & Baek, Jungho, 2013. "Dynamic relationship between air transport demand and economic growth in the United States: A new look," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 257-260.
    9. Junwook, Chi & Jungho, Baek, 2013. "Dynamic Effects Of Economic Growth On U.s. Air Passenger And Freight Services," 54th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Annapolis, Maryland, March 21-23, 2013 206948, Transportation Research Forum.
    10. Isabelle Laplace & Chantal Latgé-Roucolle, 2016. "Deregulation of the ASEAN air Transport Market: Measure of Impacts of Airport Activities on Local Economies," Post-Print hal-01338251, HAL.
    11. repec:eee:transa:v:101:y:2017:i:c:p:22-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bilal Mehmood & Acleo Feliceo & Amna Shahid, 2014. "What Causes What? Aviation Demand And Economic Growth In Romania: Cointegration Estimation And Causality Analysis," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 9(1), pages 21-33, March.
    13. Murakami, Jin & Matsui, Yurika & Kato, Hironori, 2016. "Airport rail links and economic productivity: Evidence from 82 cities with the world’s 100 busiest airports," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 89-99.
    14. Koo, Tay T.R. & Tan, David T. & Duval, David Timothy, 2013. "Direct air transport and demand interaction: A vector error-correction model approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 14-19.
    15. repec:rej:journl:v:20:y:2017:i:63:p:126-146 is not listed on IDEAS


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:46:y:2010:i:2:p:261-269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.