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Applying Lessons from the Past? Exploring Historical Analogies in ECB Speeches through Text Mining, 1997–2019

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  • Anselm Küsters

    (Max Planck Institute for Legal History and Legal Theory)

Abstract

By employing text mining methods such as structural topic modeling to examine all 2,135 speeches by ECB Executive Board members between February 1997 and October 2019, this paper identifies and analyzes a significant semantic change that occurred in ECB communication in the transition from the Great Moderation to the Great Recession. The methodology also allows for a structured and empirical assessment of the hypothesis that central bankers used "lessons from the past" during the crisis. The quantitative and qualitative results indicate that references to historical analogies indeed increased at the height of the crisis (2009–11) but often served only rhetorical functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Anselm Küsters, 2022. "Applying Lessons from the Past? Exploring Historical Analogies in ECB Speeches through Text Mining, 1997–2019," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 277-329, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2022:q:1:a:7
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B29 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Other
    • C89 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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