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The Importance of Real and Nominal Shocks on the UK Housing Market

  • Seema Narayan

    (Senior Lecturer in Economics, RMIT University, Australia)

  • Paresh Kumar Narayan

    (Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin University, Australia)

The goal of this paper is to examine the responsiveness of the UK housing market to real and nominal shocks. To achieve this goal, we use a structural VAR model based on quarterly data for the period 1957:1¡V2009:4. We find that, in response to an interest rate shock, aggregate and modern house prices fall sharply over the first 4 years and do not recover to their pre-shock level. In response to a real GDP shock, both house prices react in a positive inverted U-shaped manner. Finally, we find that an inflation shock has a U-shaped negative impact on aggregate and modern house prices in the UK.

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Article provided by College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan in its journal International Journal of Business and Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 219-234

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Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:10:y:2011:i:3:p:219-234
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  1. Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2003. "Financial Liberalization And The Sensitivity Of House Prices To Monetary Policy: Theory And Evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(1), pages 20-34, January.
  2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  9. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald, 1981. "On the theory of interest rates, consumer durables, and the demand for housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 183-200, September.
  10. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  11. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald, 1980. "The Theory of Housing and Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 833-847, November.
  12. Lastrapes, W.D., 2000. "The Real Price of Housing and Money Supply Shocks: Time Series Evidence and Theoretical Simulations," Papers 00-479, Georgia - College of Business Administration, Department of Economics.
  13. McDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-55, February.
  14. M C Fleming & J G Nellis, 1985. "Research policy and review 2. House-price statistics for the United Kingdom: a survey and critical review of recent developments," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 17(3), pages 297-318, March.
  15. S. Cook & C. Thomas, 2003. "An alternative approach to examining the ripple effect in UK house prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(13), pages 849-851.
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