IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dkn/ecomet/fe_2011_05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The importance of real and nominal shocks on the UK housing market

Author

Listed:
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Narayan, Seema

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to examine the responsiveness of the UK housing market to real and nominal shocks. To achieve this goal, we use a structural VAR model based on quarterly data for the period 1957:1¡V2009:4. We find that, in response to an interest rate shock, aggregate and modern house prices fall sharply over the first 4 years and do not recover to their pre-shock level. In response to a real GDP shock, both house prices react in a positive inverted U-shaped manner. Finally, we find that an inflation shock has a U-shaped negative impact on aggregate and modern house prices in the UK.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2011. "The importance of real and nominal shocks on the UK housing market," Working Papers fe_2011_05, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2011_05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lastrapes, William D., 2002. "The Real Price of Housing and Money Supply Shocks: Time Series Evidence and Theoretical Simulations," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 40-74, March.
    2. Fisher, Irving, 1907. "The Rate of Interest," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number fisher1907.
    3. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis, 2003. "Breaking date misspecification error for the level shift KPSS test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 365-371, December.
    4. Joseph G. Nellis & J. Andrew Longbottom, 1981. "An Empirical Analysis of the Determination of House Prices in the United Kingdom," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 18(1), pages 9-21, February.
    5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    6. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald, 1981. "On the theory of interest rates, consumer durables, and the demand for housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 183-200, September.
    7. McDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-55, February.
    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    9. Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2003. "Financial Liberalization And The Sensitivity Of House Prices To Monetary Policy: Theory And Evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(1), pages 20-34, January.
    10. S. Cook & C. Thomas, 2003. "An alternative approach to examining the ripple effect in UK house prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(13), pages 849-851.
    11. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
    12. Cook, Steven, 2005. "Regional house price behaviour in the UK: application of a joint testing procedure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 345(3), pages 611-621.
    13. Massimo Giuliodori, 2005. "The Role Of House Prices In The Monetary Transmission Mechanism Across European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(4), pages 519-543, September.
    14. M C Fleming & J G Nellis, 1985. "Research Policy and Review 2. House-Price Statistics for the United Kingdom: A Survey and Critical Review of Recent Developments," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 17(3), pages 297-318, March.
    15. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
    16. Steven Cook, 2005. "Detecting long-run relationships in regional house prices in the UK," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 107-118.
    17. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald, 1980. "The Theory of Housing and Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 833-847, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chris Hudson & John Hudson & Bruce Morley, 2018. "Differing house price linkages across UK regions: A multi-dimensional recursive ripple model," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(8), pages 1636-1654, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    2. Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Is there long-run convergence of regional house prices in the UK?," Motu Working Papers 05_11, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    3. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2010. "Unit Roots and Structural Change: An Application to US House-Price Indices," Working papers 2010-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    4. Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2008. "Is There Long-run Convergence among Regional House Prices in the UK?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(8), pages 1531-1544, July.
    5. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Evidence of panel stationarity from Chinese provincial and regional income," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 274-286, June.
    6. Syed A. Basher & Josep Lluis Carrión-i-Silvestre, 2008. "Deconstructing Shocks and Persistence in OECD Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers XREAP2008-06, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jun 2008.
    7. Steve Cook, 2012. "β-convergence and the Cyclical Dynamics of UK Regional House Prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(1), pages 203-218, January.
    8. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2012. "Unit Roots and Structural Change," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 757-776, March.
    9. Basher Syed A. & Carrion-i-Silvestre Josep Lluís, 2009. "Price Level Convergence, Purchasing Power Parity and Multiple Structural Breaks in Panel Data Analysis: An Application to U.S. Cities," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-38, April.
    10. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Trends in international commodity prices: Panel unit root analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 441-451.
    11. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2009. "Panel data stochastic convergence analysis of the Mexican regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 303-327, October.
    12. Vince Daly & Ghulam Yahya Khan, 2016. "Growth Convergence and Convergence Clubs in SAARC," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-1, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    13. Payne, James E., 2012. "The Long-Run Relationship among Regional Housing Prices: An Empirical Analysis of the U.S," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 42(01), pages 1-8.
    14. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "The Euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 954-971, October.
    15. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2019. "Assessing the sustainability of external imbalances in the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 320-348, February.
    16. Omid Ranjbar & Tsangyao Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee & Zahra (Mila) Elmi, 2016. "Reopening the Convergence Debate when Sharp Breaks and Smooth Shifts Wed, 1870-2010," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(3), pages 356-377, Summer.
    17. Mei-Se Chien, 2010. "Structural Breaks and the Convergence of Regional House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 77-88, January.
    18. Omid Ranjbar & Chien-Chiang Lee & Tsangyao Chang & Mei-Ping Chen, 2014. "Income Convergence in African Countries: Evidence from a Stationary Test With Multiple Structural Breaks," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(3), pages 371-391, September.
    19. Ozcan, Burcu & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2016. "A new approach to energy consumption per capita stationarity: Evidence from OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 332-344.
    20. I-Chun Tsai, 2015. "Spillover Effect between the Regional and the National Housing Markets in the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(12), pages 1957-1976, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2011_05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Xueli Tang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedeaau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.