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The importance of real and nominal shocks on the UK housing market

Author

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Narayan, Seema

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to examine the responsiveness of the UK housing market to real and nominal shocks. To achieve this goal, we use a structural VAR model based on quarterly data for the period 1957:1¡V2009:4. We find that, in response to an interest rate shock, aggregate and modern house prices fall sharply over the first 4 years and do not recover to their pre-shock level. In response to a real GDP shock, both house prices react in a positive inverted U-shaped manner. Finally, we find that an inflation shock has a U-shaped negative impact on aggregate and modern house prices in the UK.
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Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2011. "The importance of real and nominal shocks on the UK housing market," Working Papers fe_2011_05, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2011_05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. McDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-55, February.
    4. Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2003. "Financial Liberalization And The Sensitivity Of House Prices To Monetary Policy: Theory And Evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(1), pages 20-34, January.
    5. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis, 2003. "Breaking date misspecification error for the level shift KPSS test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 365-371, December.
    6. Cook, Steven, 2005. "Regional house price behaviour in the UK: application of a joint testing procedure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 345(3), pages 611-621.
    7. Massimo Giuliodori, 2005. "The Role Of House Prices In The Monetary Transmission Mechanism Across European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(4), pages 519-543, September.
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    11. Joseph G. Nellis & J. Andrew Longbottom, 1981. "An Empirical Analysis of the Determination of House Prices in the United Kingdom," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 18(1), pages 9-21, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real shock; nominal shock; UK housing market VAR model;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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