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Makro ekonomik değişken olarak bütçe açığı-cari açık ilişkisi: Gelişmekte olan piyasalar örneği

Author

Listed:
  • Salih BARIŞIK

    (GAZİOSMANPAŞA ÜNİVERSİTESİ)

  • Ferdi KESİKOĞLU

    (ZONGULDAK KARAELMAS ÜNİVERSİTESİ)

Abstract

Bütçe ve cari işlemler hesabının aynı anda açık vermesi “ikiz açıklar” olarak adlandırılmaktadır. İktisat literatüründe ikiz açıkların oluşum sürecini açıklamaya çalışan biri “Ricardian Denklik Hipotezi” diğeri de “Geleneksel Keynesyen Hipotez” olmak üzere iki temel iktisadi görüş bulunmaktadır. Geleneksel Keynesyen hipotez açıklar arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğunu öne sürerken Ricardian yaklaşım açıklar arasında herhangi bir ilişkinin olmadığını öne sürmektedir. Bu çalışmada, bütçe açıkları ile cari açıklar arasındaki teorik ilişki yükselen piyasalar ekonomileri arasından seçilen 12 ülke için 1991-2007 dönemine ilişkin yıllık veriler kullanılarak Holtz-Eakin, Newey ve Rosen tarafından geliştirilen panel nedensellik testi ile test edilmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular Geleneksel Keynesyen Hipotezi destekler niteliktedir. Panel nedensellik testi analizi sonuçlarına göre 1991-2007 arası 12 yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde bütçe açığı ile cari açık arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır.

Suggested Citation

  • Salih BARIŞIK & Ferdi KESİKOĞLU, 2010. "Makro ekonomik değişken olarak bütçe açığı-cari açık ilişkisi: Gelişmekte olan piyasalar örneği," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 25(294), pages 109-127.
  • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:25:y:2010:i:294:p:109-127
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1989. "The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus: Evidence from Local Government Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 415-429, May.
    2. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 1989. "Are The Twin Deficits Really Related?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(4), pages 91-115, October.
    3. Bundt, Thomas & Solocha, Andrew, 1988. "Debt, deficits and the dollar," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 581-600.
    4. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    5. Akhand A. Hossain & Anis Chowdhury, 1998. "Open-Economy Macroeconomics for Developing Countries," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 831, April.
    6. Bilgili, Faik & Bilgili, Emine, 1998. "Bütçe açığının cari işlemler üzerindeki etkileri: Teori ve uygulama
      [The effects of budget deficit on current account balance: Theory and empirical evidence]
      ," MPRA Paper 80866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kearney, Colm & Monadjemi, Mehdi, 1990. "Fiscal policy and current account performance: International evidence on the twin deficits," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 197-219.
    8. Ki-Ho Kim, 1995. "On the Long-Run Determinants of the U.S. Trade Balance: A Comment," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 447-455, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bütçe Açığı; Panel Veri Analizi; Gelişen Piyasalar.;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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