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Sustainable debt and deficits in Emerging Markets

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  • Ashima Goyal

Abstract

Rising deficits and high debt ratios characterised currency crises in countries with low private savings rates and low population densities. But in emerging markets with large population transferring to more productive employment, sustainable debts and deficits may be higher. Debt ratios fall with growth rates. Higher private savings can compensate for government dissaving. An optimising model of such an economy with dualistic labour markets and two types of consumers demonstrates these features but also shows debt ratios tend to rise in high growth phases. Policy conclusions for fiscal consolidation and coordination with monetary policy are derived in the Indian context.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal, 2011. "Sustainable debt and deficits in Emerging Markets," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 113-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijtrgm:v:4:y:2011:i:2:p:113-136
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    6. Ashima Goyal, 2009. "The Natural Interest Rate In Emerging Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Bhaskar Dutta & Tridip Ray & E Somanathan (ed.), New And Enduring Themes In Development Economics, chapter 15, pages 333-368, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    11. Ashima Goyal, 2008. "The Structure of inflation, information and labour markets: Implications for monetary policy," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-010, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ashima Goyal, 2010. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Performance in South Asia," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22779, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Nandi, Aurodeep, 2019. "Fiscal deficit targeting alongside flexible inflation targeting: India’s fiscal policy transmission," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Goyal, Ashima, 2011. "A general equilibrium open economy model for emerging markets: Monetary policy with a dualistic labor market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1392-1404, May.
    4. Ashima Goyal & Shruti Tripathi, 2012. "Stability and policy rules in emerging markets," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-004, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    5. Debi Prasad Bal & Badri Narayan Rath, 2018. "Do Macroeconomics Channels Matter for Examining Relationship Between Public Debt and Economic Growth in India?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 121-142, December.
    6. Ashima Goyal, 2021. "Using the snowball effect in Indian post Covid-19 paths to fiscal consolidation," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-016, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    7. Kearney, Colm, 2012. "Emerging markets research: Trends, issues and future directions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183.
    8. Ashima Goyal, 2023. "Similarities yet divergence in South Asian macroeconomic performance," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2023-013, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    9. Goyal, Ashima, 2012. "Propagation Mechanisms in Inflation: Governance as key," MPRA Paper 46360, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    deficits; sustainability; monetary policies; fiscal policies; emerging markets; sustainable debt; debt ratios; currency crises; private savings; population densities; large populations; productive employment; growth rates; government dissaving; dualistic labour markets; consumers; high growth; fiscal consolidation; fiscal coordination; India; globalisation; trade; global markets; global economy; policy analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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