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A Comparative Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in China, Eurozone and the U.S.: A Vector Error Correction Model

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  • Sheng Xu
  • Hailun Zhang
  • Said Atri

Abstract

This study examines the pass-through effect of fluctuations in the exchange rate on inflation in China in comparison with similar effects in the Eurozone and the United States. Using a set of monthly data covering the period 1999 through 2015 for each case, we constructed a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model as well as an Error Correction model (VECM) to estimate the pass-through effects in the three cases. In addition, to ensure that our results are statistically unbiased we also tested the stationarity of the variables of the model. Moreover, to distinguish between the short-run and long-run pass-through effects, we made use of a series of co-integration tests. Our results indicate that the pass-through effect of changes in the exchange rate in China is much weaker than it is in the Eurozone and the United States. We found this effect in the U.S. to be both more notable and longer-lasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheng Xu & Hailun Zhang & Said Atri, 2017. "A Comparative Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in China, Eurozone and the U.S.: A Vector Error Correction Model," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(8), pages 51-65, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:8:p:51-65
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Krugman, 1986. "Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 1926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May.
    3. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Sirag, Abdalla & Soon, Siew-Voon, 2017. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 247-259.
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    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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