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Does the CBOE Volatility Index Predict Downside Risk at the Tokyo Stock Exchange?

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  • Chikashi Tsuji

Abstract

This study investigates the predictability of the preceding day’s US volatility index (VIX) from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) for sharp price drops of the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) by employing several versions of probit models. All our results indicate that the preceding day’s US S&P 500 VIX movement has predictive power for sharp price declines of the TOPIX in Japan. As we repeatedly examined several left tail risks in TOPIX price changes and we also tested by applying some different versions of probit models, our evidence of the forecast power of the S&P 500 VIX for downside risk of the TOPIX shall be very robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Chikashi Tsuji, 2017. "Does the CBOE Volatility Index Predict Downside Risk at the Tokyo Stock Exchange?," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(3), pages 1-7, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ibrjnl:v:10:y:2017:i:3:p:1-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chikashi Tsuji, 2018. "An Investigation of the Predictive Speed of the UK VIX for the Downside Risk in European Equity Markets," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(12), pages 18-25, December.
    2. Tissaoui, Kais, 2019. "Forecasting implied volatility risk indexes: International evidence using Hammerstein-ARX approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 232-249.
    3. Tissaoui, Kais & Zaghdoudi, Taha, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness between the U.S. financial market and Euro-Asian financial markets: Testing transmission of uncertainty through spatial regressions models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 481-492.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    downside risk; probit model; stock market linkage; S&P 500; tail risk; TOPIX; VIX;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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