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The Effects of Coal Switching and Improvements in Electricity Production Efficiency and Consumption on CO 2 Mitigation Goals in China

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  • Li Li

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing Information Science & Technology University, 100192 Beijing, China)

  • Jianjun Wang

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, 102206 Beijing, China)

Abstract

Although the average CO 2 emission for a person in China is only about 1/4 that of a person in the US, the government of China still made a commitment to ensure that CO 2 emissions will reach their peak in 2030 because of the ever-increasing pressure of global warming. In this work, we examined the effects of coal switching, efficiency improvements in thermal power generation and the electricity consumption of economic activities on realizing this goal. An improved STIRPAT model was developed to create the scenarios. In order to make the estimated elasticities more consistent with different variables selected to construct the formulation, a double-layer STIRPAT model was constructed, and by integrating the two equations obtained by regressing the series in each layer, we finally got the equation to describe the long-run relationship among CO 2 emissions ( I c ), the share of coal in overall energy consumption ( FM C ), coal intensity of thermal power generation ( CI p ) and electricity intensity of GDP ( EI elec ). The long term elasticities represented by the equation show that the growth of CO 2 emissions in China is quite sensitive to FM C , CI p and EI elec . After that, five scenarios were developed in order to examine the effects of China’s possible different CO 2 emission reduction policies, focusing on improving FM C , CI p and EI elec respectively. Through a rigorous analysis, we found that in order to realize the committed CO 2 emissions mitigating goal, China should obviously accelerate the pace in switching from coal to low carbon fuels, coupled with a consistent improvement in electricity efficiency of economic activities and a slightly slower improvement in the coal efficiency of thermal power generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Li & Jianjun Wang, 2015. "The Effects of Coal Switching and Improvements in Electricity Production Efficiency and Consumption on CO 2 Mitigation Goals in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-20, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:7:p:9540-9559:d:52744
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    2. Chen, Hao & Kang, Jia-Ning & Liao, Hua & Tang, Bao-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Costs and potentials of energy conservation in China's coal-fired power industry: A bottom-up approach considering price uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 23-32.
    3. Xiaohua Song & Xiao Jiang & Xubei Zhang & Jinpeng Liu, 2018. "Analysis, Evaluation and Optimization Strategy of China Thermal Power Enterprises’ Business Performance Considering Environmental Costs under the Background of Carbon Trading," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-27, June.

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