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Analysis on influence factors of China's CO2 emissions based on Path–STIRPAT model

Author

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  • Li, Huanan
  • Mu, Hailin
  • Zhang, Ming
  • Li, Nan

Abstract

With the intensification of global warming and continued growth in energy consumption, China is facing increasing pressure to cut its CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions down. This paper discusses the driving forces influencing China's CO2 emissions based on Path–STIRPAT model—a method combining Path analysis with STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology) model. The analysis shows that GDP per capita (A), industrial structure (IS), population (P), urbanization level (R) and technology level (T) are the main factors influencing China's CO2 emissions, which exert an influence interactively and collaboratively. The sequence of the size of factors' direct influence on China's CO2 emission is A>T>P>R>IS, while that of factors' total influence is A>R>P>T>IS. One percent increase in A, IS, P, R and T leads to 0.44, 1.58, 1.31, 1.12 and −1.09 percentage change in CO2 emission totally, where their direct contribution is 0.45, 0.07, 0.63, 0.08, 0.92, respectively. Improving T is the most important way for CO2 reduction in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Huanan & Mu, Hailin & Zhang, Ming & Li, Nan, 2011. "Analysis on influence factors of China's CO2 emissions based on Path–STIRPAT model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6906-6911.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:11:p:6906-6911
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.08.056
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shi, Anqing, 2003. "The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975-1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-42, February.
    2. James Cramer, 1998. "Population growth and air quality in California," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 35(1), pages 45-56, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Huanan & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2015. "Is it possible for China to reduce its total CO2 emissions?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 438-446.
    2. Wang, Changjian & Wang, Fei & Zhang, Xinlin & Yang, Yu & Su, Yongxian & Ye, Yuyao & Zhang, Hongou, 2017. "Examining the driving factors of energy related carbon emissions using the extended STIRPAT model based on IPAT identity in Xinjiang," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 51-61.
    3. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:5:p:825-:d:98720 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Wang, Yuan & Zhang, Xiang & Kubota, Jumpei & Zhu, Xiaodong & Lu, Genfa, 2015. "A semi-parametric panel data analysis on the urbanization-carbon emissions nexus for OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 704-709.
    5. Wang, Zhaohua & Zhang, Bin & Liu, Tongfan, 2016. "Empirical analysis on the factors influencing national and regional carbon intensity in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 34-42.
    6. repec:eee:enepol:v:107:y:2017:i:c:p:698-710 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Zhao, Xueting & Burnett, J. Wesley & Fletcher, Jerald J., 2013. "Spatial Analysis of China Provincial-Level CO2 Emission Intensity," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149006, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Wang, Yuan & Li, Li & Kubota, Jumpei & Han, Rong & Zhu, Xiaodong & Lu, Genfa, 2016. "Does urbanization lead to more carbon emission? Evidence from a panel of BRICS countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 375-380.
    9. repec:eee:enepol:v:109:y:2017:i:c:p:650-658 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Long, Ruyin & Shao, Tianxiang & Chen, Hong, 2016. "Spatial econometric analysis of China’s province-level industrial carbon productivity and its influencing factors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 210-219.
    11. Wang, Jianjun & Li, Li, 2016. "Sustainable energy development scenario forecasting and energy saving policy analysis of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 718-724.
    12. Li Li & Jianjun Wang, 2015. "The Effects of Coal Switching and Improvements in Electricity Production Efficiency and Consumption on CO 2 Mitigation Goals in China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(7), pages 1-20, July.
    13. repec:eee:eneeco:v:68:y:2017:i:c:p:522-538 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Wang, Ping & Wu, Wanshui & Zhu, Bangzhu & Wei, Yiming, 2013. "Examining the impact factors of energy-related CO2 emissions using the STIRPAT model in Guangdong Province, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 65-71.

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    Keywords

    Influence factor; CO2 emission; China;

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