Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of the Synergistic Development of Green Finance and Low-Carbon Innovation

Under the context of the “dual carbon” goals, the synergistic development of green finance and low-carbon innovation plays a significant role in driving the green transformation of the economy and high-quality development. This paper, based on provincial panel data from China from 1990 to 2022, employs the coupling coordination degree model, Dagum Gini coefficient, spatial autocorrelation model, and spatial Durbin model for empirical analysis. The research findings indicate the following: (1) the level of synergistic development of green finance and low-carbon innovation shows an upward trend, with the eastern region performing well, while the western region’s development remains weak, leaving much room for improvement; (2) the spatial differences in the synergistic development of green finance and low-carbon innovation are mainly due to inter-regional differences, followed by intra-regional differences, with the impact of super-variation density being relatively small; (3) regarding spatial correlation, there is a significant spatial autocorrelation in the synergistic development of green finance and low-carbon innovation, with the eastern region showing high-level clustering, while the western region exhibits low-level clustering; (4) the positive driving factors influencing the synergistic development of green finance and low-carbon innovation are ranked as follows: Government policy support > Human capital > Economic development, with industrial structure having a significant negative impact. Based on these conclusions, recommendations are made to strengthen differentiated policy support mechanisms, build cross-regional innovation collaboration networks, systematically promote the green transformation of industrial structures, expand markets, and strengthen regional cooperation.