Financing Targeted Basic Income Through Carbon Taxation: A Simulation for Türkiye

This research evaluates the financial sustainability of a basic income (BI) model funded through carbon taxation in Türkiye. Unlike classical BI models that provide unconditional transfers to everyone, this study proposes an income support scheme targeted only at those below the poverty line. The model seeks to balance limited resources with the goal of social equity. In this scenario, sectoral carbon taxation evolves progressively. The tax starts with the energy sector, which has the highest emissions, and subsequently shifts to industry and other sectors. Emissions will be reduced by 1% each year, while a carbon tax that starts at USD 12 per ton will be dynamically converted to TL based on the increasing exchange rate year by year. The simulation looks at 2023–2050 and computes annual revenue and expenditure forecasts for the period. The findings indicate that the revenues from carbon taxation are not only sufficient to cover the prioritized expenditure in the targeted basic income (TBI) scheme but also will lead to fiscal surplus in the long run. The research proposes for the first time a framework which integrates social protection and the environmental taxation of carbon, synergizing policies aimed at alleviating income disparity and climate change within Türkiye’s context.