Has Green Technological Innovation Become an Accelerator of Carbon Emission Reductions?

With the advancement of global climate governance, public attention—an emerging form of social capital—has played an increasingly important role in the carbon emission effects of green technological innovation. Based on panel data from 267 prefecture-level cities in China from 2012 to 2022, this study employed a two-way fixed-effects model to identify the nonlinear relationship between green innovation and carbon emissions, incorporated interaction terms to examine the moderating effect of public attention, and applied a spatial Durbin model to analyze the spatial spillover effects of green innovation. The results reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between green innovation and carbon emissions, with the inflection point corresponding to 8.58 authorized green patents per 10,000 people—a threshold that most cities have yet to reach. Public attention significantly altered the shape of the carbon effect curve by making it steeper; in cities with a higher share of secondary industry, it delayed the inflection point, whereas in cities dominated by the tertiary industry, the turning point appeared earlier. In addition, green innovation had significant spatial spillover effects, and its impact on carbon emissions in neighboring cities displayed a U-shaped pattern. This paper proposes an analytical framework of “socially empowered innovation” to reveal the nonlinear moderating mechanism through which public attention influences the carbon effects of green innovation. The findings offer important policy implications: efforts should focus on long-term innovation, promote regional coordination, guide rational public participation, and avoid short-sighted and unsustainable mitigation practices.