Energy Implications of Urban Shrinkage in China: Pathways of Population Dilution, Industrial Restructuring, and Consumption Inertia

The structural responsiveness of urban energy systems has emerged as a central challenge in the governance of shrinking cities. Urban shrinkage entails more than a redistribution of resources—it reflects deep tensions embedded in population spatial configuration, functional redundancy, and institutional inertia. To investigate the evolutionary trajectory and driving mechanisms of urban energy consumption (UEC) under the context of urban shrinkage, this study focuses on China, a country undergoing rapid internal regional transformation. Drawing on panel data from 281 cities between 2008 and 2021, the study integrates two-way fixed effects (TWFE) models, mediation analysis, and spatial econometric models to ensure the scientific rigor and robustness of the quantitative analysis. Contrary to the intuitive assumption that declining population leads to reduced energy loads, the results reveal a non-linear and asymmetric trajectory wherein per capita energy consumption increases alongside continued demographic decline. Mechanism decomposition further shows that declines in population density and the share of secondary industry suppress UEC through spatial dispersal and the retreat of energy-intensive sectors, respectively. In contrast, fiscal contraction and institutional path dependency collectively elevate the share of traditional energy consumption, reinforcing the structural inertia of UEC. This study illuminates the non-linear dynamics of energy system evolution under urban shrinkage and argues for a shift away from linear and target-driven governance paradigms toward governance frameworks that emphasize structural adaptation, distributive equity, and systemic resilience—thereby offering a theoretical and empirical foundation for multi-objective sustainable urban transitions.