Understanding Urban Growth and Shrinkage: A Study of the Modern Manufacturing City of Dongguan, China

Since the early 21st century, urban shrinkage has become a significant global phenomenon. Dongguan, in Guangdong Province, China, is known as a “world factory”. It experienced notable urban shrinkage following the 2008 financial crisis. However, the city demonstrated remarkable recovery and ongoing development in subsequent years. On that basis, this study focuses on the following three points: (1) identifying the spatiotemporal factors contributing to the growth and shrinkage of manufacturing cities, taking Dongguan as an example; (2) explaining the influencing factors of the growth and shrinkage of Dongguan City during three critical periods, 2008–2014 (post-crisis), 2015–2019 (as machinery replaced human work), and 2020–2023 (the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery); and (3) selecting representative towns and streets for on-site observation and investigation, analyzing the measures they have taken to cope with growth and shrinkage during different periods. The key findings include the following: (1) The spatial dynamics of growth and shrinkage in Dongguan show significant temporal patterns, with traditional manufacturing areas shrinking from 2008 to 2014, central urban areas recovering from 2015 to 2019, and renewed shrinkage from 2020 to 2023. However, some regions maintained stability through strategic innovations. (2) Various factors, particularly industrial upgrading and technological innovation, drove the urban dynamics, enhancing economic resilience. (3) The case study of Houjie Town revealed successful adaptive mechanisms supported by policy while facing challenges like labor mismatches and inadequate R&D investment. This research offers insights for improving urban resilience and promoting sustainable development in Dongguan.