Does the Development of Digital Finance Enhance Urban Energy Resilience? Evidence from Machine Learning

Amid the escalating global climate crisis, the transition to sustainable energy systems has become imperative. As the world’s largest energy producer and consumer, China has established ambitious dual carbon targets, which present formidable challenges to urban energy systems that remain heavily reliant on conventional energy sources and exhibit inadequate renewable energy development. Drawing on complex adaptive systems theory, this study investigates the extent to which digital finance enhances urban energy resilience, examining both the underlying mechanisms and heterogeneous effects. Employing a multi-period difference-in-differences model with digital finance policies as a quasi-natural experiment, our analysis of panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (2016–2023) demonstrates that digital finance significantly enhances the resilience of urban energy systems and their three constituent subsystems. A mediation analysis reveals the pivotal role of innovative organizations, while machine learning techniques uncover nonlinear relationships moderated by marketization levels, fiscal energy allocations, and initial digital finance development. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers, financial institutions, and energy enterprises seeking to advance sustainable energy governance and foster financial innovation in the energy transition.