How Does the Construction of New Generation of National AI Innovative Development Pilot Zones Affect Carbon Emissions Intensity? Empirical Evidence from China

At a critical juncture in the global low-carbon transition, the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in facilitating low-carbon growth has become increasingly significant. To accelerate the integration of AI with socio-economic development, China has established National New Generation Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Development Pilot Zones (AIPZ). However, the specific impact of these zones on low-carbon development remains unclear. This study utilized panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2022 and employed the multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model and the spatial autoregressive difference-in-differences (SARDID) model to examine the carbon emissions reduction effects of the AIPZ policy and its spatial spillover effects. The findings revealed that the policy significantly reduced carbon emissions intensity (CEI) across provinces, with an average reduction effect of 6.9%. The analysis of the impact mechanism confirmed the key role of human, technological, and financial resources. Heterogeneity analysis indicated varying effects across regions, with more significant reductions in eastern and energy-rich areas. Further analysis using the SARDID model confirmed spatial spillover effects on CEI. This paper aims to enhance understanding of the relationship between AIPZ and CEI and provide empirical evidence for policymakers during the low-carbon transition. By exploring the potential of the AIPZ policy in emissions reduction, it proposes targeted strategies and implementation pathways for policymakers and industry participants to promote the sustainable development of China’s low-carbon economy.