The Last Mile of China’s Low-Carbon Movement: Amplifying Climate Policy Through Cadre Performance Evaluation System

Climate governance operates across multiple administrative tiers, and enhancing the vertical coherence of policies has become a critical determinant of successful climate governance. This study employs data from 1578 counties in China from 2008 to 2022 to explore the synergistic effects between the Low Carbon City Policy (LCCP) and the Cadre Performance Evaluation System Transformation (CPEST). The study reveals that the CPEST has the potential to enhance the carbon reduction effects of the LCCP, yet it has not fully realized a synergistic effect. Further analysis indicates that although the timing arrangement is beneficial, it alone is insufficient to generate a synergistic effect. A synergistic impact only materializes when the objectives of the CPEST and LCCP are aligned, resulting in a carbon reduction effect that is approximately 1.5 times greater than the simple sum of their individual impacts. Mechanism analysis indicates that the combination of the LCCP and CPEST reduces carbon emissions primarily through four pathways: environmental investment, environmental penalties, green technology innovation, and upgrading of industrial structure. The effects of this combined approach are greater than those achieved through separate implementation. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the combination of the LCCP and CPEST has a more pronounced effect in resource-based cities, old industrial bases, and regions with strong promotion incentives. The research findings provide both theoretical support and empirical evidence for enhancing vertical coordination in climate governance.