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Optimizing Cross-Regional Lockdown Policies for Epidemics: Balancing Economic and Public Health Costs

Author

Listed:
  • Taojie Qin

    (School of Business Administration, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 610074, China)

  • Xianghua Gan

    (School of Business Administration, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 610074, China)

  • Yuchen Li

    (School of Business Administration, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 610074, China)

  • Changsheng Qin

    (School of Business Administration, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 610074, China)

Abstract

The cross-regional spread of epidemics, such as COVID-19, poses significant challenges due to the spillover of false-negative individuals resulting from incubation periods, detection errors, and individual irrationality. This study develops a stylized model to address the trade-offs faced by the planner in designing optimal lockdown policies: curbing the cross-regional spread of epidemics while balancing economic costs and ensuring long-term sustainability. The model integrates a queuing network to calculate the influx of false-negative cases, which more accurately reflects real-world scenarios and captures the complexity of regional interactions during an outbreak. Subsequently, a SIR network is used to estimate the spread of infections. Unlike similar studies, our approach focuses specifically on the cross-regional dynamics of epidemic spread and the formulation of optimal lockdown policies that consider both public health and economic impacts. By optimizing the lockdown threshold, the model aims to minimize the total costs associated with lockdown implementation and infection spread. Our theoretical and numerical results underscore the crucial role of timely nucleic acid testing in reducing infection rates and highlight the delicate balance between public health benefits and economic sustainability. These findings provide valuable insights for developing sustainable epidemic management strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Taojie Qin & Xianghua Gan & Yuchen Li & Changsheng Qin, 2024. "Optimizing Cross-Regional Lockdown Policies for Epidemics: Balancing Economic and Public Health Costs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:17:p:7682-:d:1471256
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Moser & Pierre Yared, 2022. "Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 27-50, October.
    2. Eichenbaum, Martin S. & Rebelo, Sergio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "The macroeconomics of testing and quarantining," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Moll, Benjamin & Kaplan, Greg & Violante, Giovanni, 2020. "The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 15256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    5. Davide Torre & Danilo Liuzzi & Simone Marsiglio, 2024. "Epidemic outbreaks and the optimal lockdown area: a spatial normative approach," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 349-411, February.
    6. Glenn Ellison, 2024. "Implications of heterogeneous SIR models for analyses of COVID-19," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 28(4), pages 651-687, December.
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