Sustainable Food Supply from the Perspective of Paddy Ecosystem Elasticity: Policies and Implications

Rice is the staple food for 2.5 billion people worldwide and most farmers depend solely on rice for their livelihood. This study estimates how paddy ecosystem elasticity and external human activity affect paddy ecosystem sustainable food supply. In particular, we analyzed how sustainable food supply is affected by three key domains of external factors—ecological factors, including the proportion of paddy Area (Are), per capita cultivated land area (Lan), and annual wastewater discharge per capita (Was); economic factors, including the agricultural economy level (Inv) and urbanization rate (Urb); and social factors, including the education of farmers (Edu) and rural medical level (Med). We use ANEV, or net paddy ecosystem services value per unit area, to assess the sustainable food supply, which not only represents the food supply quantity and quality, but also the sustainability of the food supply. Results from our panel and threshold regressions suggest that Lan and Urb have a threshold effect on paddy ANEV; Are, Was, Inv, and Edu have a linear negative correlation with ANEV; and Med has a positive linear correlation with ANEV. Based on our findings, we lay out a series of recommendations that may guide future formulation of policies on paddy ecosystem protection and sustainable food supply.