Can We Have Our Cake and Eat It? A Review of the Debate on Green Recovery from the COVID-19 Crisis

As we speed through the development and distribution of a vaccine for the COVID-19 pandemic, economies are suffering through the worst decline of the century while, at the same time, being pushed to comply with global agreements regarding climate change. Because of this, the economic downturn is also seen as an opportunity to speed up the sustainability transition or, in simple terms, to achieve a “green recovery”. What can we expect from a green recovery? We address this question by reviewing position documents in the debate between green recovery and its opponent, “quick rebound”, in the Netherlands. We apply systems thinking to model causal arguments regarding key concepts comprising green recovery and identify issues of consensus and dissensus. Our findings indicate that green recovery is promising for curbing greenhouse gas emissions and addressing growing socioeconomic inequalities. However, the position of what green recovery means for economic growth, including the development of gross domestic product and employment, is still largely unclear and at times contradictory. While some see tradeoffs, others suggest that economic growth and sustainability goals can be achieved simultaneously. Thus, we conclude by reflecting on the question: Can we have our cake and eat it?