The Determinants of Commercial Land Leases in the Non-Central Districts of a Large City in China: Data Analysis from the Government–Market Perspective

Based on the data of the non-central districts in Shanghai, this paper investigates the determinants of the commercial land leases of district governments from the government–market perspective and how these determinants affect the price and area of commercial land leasing. A kernel density analysis is used to analyze the agglomeration degree and density distribution of commercial land leasing. The variables are considered as the factors impacting commercial land leases based on a literature review and land development in Shanghai. The mathematical models used for multiple linear regression for the leased price and area of the influencing factors of commercial land leases from the perspective of the government and market are proposed. The results show that Shanghai’s multi-center development strategy aims to optimize the city’s commercial layout by developing the key areas of non-central districts. The construction area and plot ratio of land; the distances from the land to the city center, district center, airports, the nearest middle schools, the nearest park, and the nearest industrial zone; and the quantity of subway stations and highways affect commercial land leases. Policies are proposed to improve commercial land lease efficiency, make more suitable land planning strategies, and optimize urban spatial structures.