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Why Did the “Missing Middle” Miss the Train? An Actors-In-Systems Exploration of Barriers to Intensified Family Housing in Waterloo Region, Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Dawn Cassandra Parker

    (School of Planning, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave. W., Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada)

  • Shahab Valaei Sharif

    (School of Planning, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave. W., Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada)

  • Kaitlin Webber

    (School of Planning, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave. W., Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada)

Abstract

(1) Background: Missing Middle (MM) housing may be critical to address decreasing housing affordability and to achieve critical density in transit-oriented neighborhoods; however, its production is in decline. We report on a case study of housing development around a new light-rail transit line in the Region of Waterloo, Canada, investigating the puzzle of how a residential building boom coincided with decreasing housing affordability. (2) Methods: Following participatory co-creation and communication of background research characterizing housing demand with stakeholder partners, we created a data narrative arguing that MM housing was desired by residents and profitable for developers and then used it to guide semi-structured interviews with planners and real estate industry stakeholders. Based on these interviews, we developed a qualitative system map and causal loop diagrams that demonstrate interactions between key actors (residents, brokers, planners, developers, and investors) as mediated by boundedly rational real estate demand expectations. (3) Results: Our interviews identify multi-faceted barriers, beyond demand perception, to MM housing development. Systems analysis illustrates how high-density, small-unit high-rise development can become locked in, concurrently locking out MM housing. (4) Conclusions: Our research identifies barriers to MM housing supply by articulating the systemic feedbacks between the planning and land/housing market realms and reveals key leverage points, empowering planners to develop policies that catalyze hoped-for housing market supply responses to increase housing affordability. Based on these findings, we suggest targeted interventions: multi-unit base residential zoning, MM site plan typologies, non-profit and co-op financing, unit-mix requirements, pre-build MM condo purchase by municipalities or non-profits, and MM demonstration projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Dawn Cassandra Parker & Shahab Valaei Sharif & Kaitlin Webber, 2023. "Why Did the “Missing Middle” Miss the Train? An Actors-In-Systems Exploration of Barriers to Intensified Family Housing in Waterloo Region, Canada," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:2:p:434-:d:1060649
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yu & Parker, Dawn & Minaker, Leia, 2021. "Identifying latent demand for transit-oriented development neighbourhoods: Evidence from a mid-sized urban area in Canada," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Nicholas R Magliocca & Daniel G Brown & Virginia D McConnell & Joan I Nassauer & S Elizabeth Westbrook, 2014. "Effects of Alternative Developer Decision-Making Models on the Production of Ecological Subdivision Designs: Experimental Results from an Agent-Based Model," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 41(5), pages 907-927, October.
    3. Moira Zellner & Scott D. Campbell, 2015. "Planning for deep-rooted problems: What can we learn from aligning complex systems and wicked problems?," Planning Theory & Practice, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 457-478, October.
    4. Camilo Olaya, 2015. "Cows, agency, and the significance of operational thinking," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 31(4), pages 183-219, October.
    5. Tatiana Filatova & Dawn C. Parker & Anne van der Veen, 2009. "Agent-Based Urban Land Markets: Agent's Pricing Behavior, Land Prices and Urban Land Use Change," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 12(1), pages 1-3.
    6. Jay W. Forrester, 2016. "Learning through System Dynamics as Preparation for the 21st Century," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 32(3-4), pages 187-203, July.
    7. Markus Moos & Nick Revington & Tristan Wilkin, 2018. "Is there suitable housing near work? The impact of housing suitability on commute distances in Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver," Journal of Urbanism: International Research on Placemaking and Urban Sustainability, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 436-459, October.
    8. Parker, Dawn Cassandra, 2007. "Revealing "space" in spatial externalities: Edge-effect externalities and spatial incentives," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 84-99, July.
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