IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v9y2016i9p751-d78221.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China?

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaopeng Guo

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 2 Beinong Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Yanan Wei

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 2 Beinong Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China
    Yunnan Electric Power Science Research Institute, No. 105, Yunda Western Road, Kunming 650217, China)

  • Jiahai Yuan

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 2 Beinong Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China)

Abstract

The steam coal price in China has been continuously decreasing since the second half of 2012. Constant low price of coal will accelerate the development of thermal power, cause more serious air pollution problems, and bring adverse influence to China’s energy reformation in the future. Therefore, analyzing the factors underlying the phenomenon of the decreasing steam coal price is significant. In this study, we first qualitatively analyze five main factors, namely, economy, supply, demand, substitutes, and port stocks. On the basis of the relationships among these five factors, we obtain the causality diagram and the system flow diagram of coal price for further quantitative research. Then, we conduct an empirical analysis using the system dynamics (SD) method and determine the simulated price from 2012 to 2017. Finally, we discuss the running results and come to the conclusion that the steam coal price will continue to decrease under the combined actions of the five main factors and it will not rebound in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaopeng Guo & Yanan Wei & Jiahai Yuan, 2016. "Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-13, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:9:p:751-:d:78221
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/9/751/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/9/751/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kanamura, Takashi, 2009. "A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 736-747, September.
    2. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "On the link between forward energy prices: A nonlinear panel cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1170-1175.
    3. Zaklan, Aleksandar & Cullmann, Astrid & Neumann, Anne & von Hirschhausen, Christian, 2012. "The globalization of steam coal markets and the role of logistics: An empirical analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 105-116.
    4. Yu, Shiwei & Wei, Yi-ming, 2012. "Prediction of China's coal production-environmental pollution based on a hybrid genetic algorithm-system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 521-529.
    5. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Wu, Junlong, 2010. "The relationship among energy prices and energy consumption in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 197-207, January.
    6. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Forecasting energy market volatility using GARCH models: Can multivariate models beat univariate models?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2167-2181.
    7. Ansari, Nastaran & Seifi, Abbas, 2012. "A system dynamics analysis of energy consumption and corrective policies in Iranian iron and steel industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 334-343.
    8. Chi, K.C. & Reiner, D.M. & Nuttall, W.J., 2009. "Dynamics of the UK Natural Gas Industry: System Dynamics Modelling and Long-Term Energy Policy Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0922, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. van Goor, Harm & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "Modeling natural gas price volatility: The case of the UK gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 126-134.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sibande, Xolani & Demirer, Riza & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "On the pricing effects of bitcoin mining in the fossil fuel market: The case of coal," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    2. Khan, Khalid & Su, Chi-Wei & Rehman, Ashfaq U., 2021. "Do multiple bubbles exist in coal price?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Francisco Martínez-Álvarez & Alicia Troncoso & José C. Riquelme, 2017. "Recent Advances in Energy Time Series Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-3, June.
    4. Wang, Tiantian & Wu, Fei & Dickinson, David & Zhao, Wanli, 2024. "Energy price bubbles and extreme price movements: Evidence from China's coal market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Bowen Da & Chuanzhe Liu & Nana Liu & Sidun Fan, 2021. "Strategies of Two-Level Green Technology Investments for Coal Supply Chain under Different Dominant Modes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-24, March.
    6. Li, Zheng-Zheng & Su, Chi-Wei & Chang, Tsangyao & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2022. "Policy-driven or market-driven? Evidence from steam coal price bubbles in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaopeng Guo & Jiaxing Shi & Dongfang Ren, 2016. "Coal Price Forecasting and Structural Analysis in China," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2016, pages 1-7, October.
    2. Abada, Ibrahim & Briat, Vincent & Massol, Olivier, 2013. "Construction of a fuel demand function portraying interfuel substitution, a system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 240-251.
    3. Sun, Mei & Wang, Yaqi & Gao, Cuixia, 2016. "Visibility graph network analysis of natural gas price: The case of North American market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 1-11.
    4. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter, 2018. "Exploiting dependence: Day-ahead volatility forecasting for crude oil and natural gas exchange-traded funds," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 462-473.
    5. Zhang, Ruining & Ai, Xianneng & Li, Hui, 2023. "How to design subsidy policies for clean energy projects? A study on “coal-to-gas” project in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    6. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    7. Dehghan, Hamed & Amin-Naseri, Mohammad Reza & Nahavandi, Nasim, 2021. "A system dynamics model to analyze future electricity supply and demand in Iran under alternative pricing policies," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Obsatar Sinaga & Mohd Haizam Mohd Saudi & Djoko Roespinoedji & Mohd Shahril Ahmad Razimi, 2019. "The Dynamic Relationship between Natural Gas and Economic Growth: Evidence from Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 388-394.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-23, July.
    10. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2022. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A robust weighted least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    11. Misund, Bård & Oglend, Atle, 2016. "Supply and demand determinants of natural gas price volatility in the U.K.: A vector autoregression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 178-189.
    12. Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar & Heidari, Hassan, 2013. "تفكيك اثرات منشأ شوك‌هاي نفتي بر همبستگی پویای بین رشد بخش صنعت و معدن و قیمت نفت خام در ایران [Separation of the Effects of Oil Price Shocks Origin on Dynamic Correlation between Growth of Industr," MPRA Paper 79257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Karasu, Seçkin & Altan, Aytaç, 2022. "Crude oil time series prediction model based on LSTM network with chaotic Henry gas solubility optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    14. Huabin Bian & Renhai Hua & Qingfu Liu & Ping Zhang, 2022. "Petroleum market volatility tracker in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(11), pages 2022-2040, November.
    15. Yu, Shiwei & Wei, Yi-Ming & Guo, Haixiang & Ding, Liping, 2014. "Carbon emission coefficient measurement of the coal-to-power energy chain in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 290-300.
    16. Storhas, Dominik P. & De Mello, Lurion & Singh, Abhay Kumar, 2020. "Multiscale lead-lag relationships in oil and refined product return dynamics: A symbolic wavelet transfer entropy approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    17. Mingqi Zhang & Meirong Su & Weiwei Lu & Chunhua Su, 2015. "An Assessment of the Security of China’s Natural Gas Supply System Using Two Network Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-16, December.
    18. Ju Wang & Tongnan Li & Zhuoqiong Li & Chunsheng Fang, 2022. "Study on the Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Particulate Matter Pollution in Coal Production Cities in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-14, March.
    19. Marcin Fałdziński & Piotr Fiszeder & Witold Orzeszko, 2020. "Forecasting Volatility of Energy Commodities: Comparison of GARCH Models with Support Vector Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-18, December.
    20. Hougaard, Jens Leth & Kronborg, Dorte & Smilgins, Aleksandrs, 2017. "Fair division of costs in green energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 220-230.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:9:p:751-:d:78221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.