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Exploring Model-Based Decarbonization and Energy Efficiency Scenarios with PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN

Author

Listed:
  • Panagiotis Fragkos

    (E3Modelling S.A., Panormou 70-72, 11523 Athens, Greece)

  • Francesco Dalla Longa

    (TNO Energy Transition Studies, 1043 NT Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Eleftheria Zisarou

    (E3Modelling S.A., Panormou 70-72, 11523 Athens, Greece)

  • Bob van der Zwaan

    (TNO Energy Transition Studies, 1043 NT Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    Faculty of Science (HIMS, and/IAS), University of Amsterdam, 1090 GD Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, 40126 Bologna, Italy)

  • Anastasis Giannousakis

    (E3Modelling S.A., Panormou 70-72, 11523 Athens, Greece)

  • Amir Fattahi

    (TNO Energy Transition Studies, 1043 NT Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

Abstract

This study provides a quantitative analysis of future energy–climate developments at the global level using two well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN. The research aims to explore the results of these IAMs and identify avenues for improvement to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The study focuses on the effects of varying assumptions for key model drivers, including carbon prices, technology costs, and global energy prices, within the context of stringent decarbonization policies. Diagnostic scenarios are utilized to assess the behavior of the models under varying exogenous assumptions for key drivers, aiming to verify the accuracy and reliability of the models and identify areas for optimization. The findings of this research demonstrate that both PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN exhibit similar responses to carbon pricing, with PROMETHEUS being more sensitive to this parameter than TIAM-ECN. The results highlight the importance of carbon pricing as an effective policy tool to drive decarbonization efforts. Additionally, the study reveals that variations in technology costs and global energy prices significantly impact the outcomes of the models. The identified sensitivities and responses of the IAMs to key model drivers offer guidance for policymakers to refine their policy decisions and develop effective strategies aligned with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. By understanding the behavior of the models under different assumptions, policymakers can make informed decisions to optimize decarbonization pathways and enhance the likelihood of meeting global climate goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Panagiotis Fragkos & Francesco Dalla Longa & Eleftheria Zisarou & Bob van der Zwaan & Anastasis Giannousakis & Amir Fattahi, 2023. "Exploring Model-Based Decarbonization and Energy Efficiency Scenarios with PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-22, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:18:p:6421-:d:1233287
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    References listed on IDEAS

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