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Is Green Recovery Enough? Analysing the Impacts of Post-COVID-19 Economic Packages

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  • Pedro R. R. Rochedo

    (Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil-Centro de Tecnologia, Sala I-034, Cidade Universitária, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil)

  • Panagiotis Fragkos

    (E3 Modelling, 70-72 Panormou Street, PO 11523 Athens, Greece)

  • Rafael Garaffa

    (Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil-Centro de Tecnologia, Sala I-034, Cidade Universitária, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil
    European Commission, Joint Research Centre-JRC, 3-41092 Seville, Spain)

  • Lilia Caiado Couto

    (The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK)

  • Luiz Bernardo Baptista

    (Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil-Centro de Tecnologia, Sala I-034, Cidade Universitária, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil)

  • Bruno S. L. Cunha

    (Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil-Centro de Tecnologia, Sala I-034, Cidade Universitária, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil)

  • Roberto Schaeffer

    (Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil-Centro de Tecnologia, Sala I-034, Cidade Universitária, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil)

  • Alexandre Szklo

    (Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil-Centro de Tecnologia, Sala I-034, Cidade Universitária, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil)

Abstract

Emissions pathways after COVID-19 will be shaped by how governments’ economic responses translate into infrastructure expansion, energy use, investment planning and societal changes. As a response to the COVID-19 crisis, most governments worldwide launched recovery packages aiming to boost their economies, support employment and enhance their competitiveness. Climate action is pledged to be embedded in most of these packages, but with sharp differences across countries. This paper provides novel evidence on the energy system and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions implications of post-COVID-19 recovery packages by assessing the gap between pledged recovery packages and the actual investment needs of the energy transition to reach the Paris Agreement goals. Using two well-established Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and analysing various scenarios combining recovery packages and climate policies, we conclude that currently planned recovery from COVID-19 is not enough to enhance societal responses to climate urgency and that it should be significantly upscaled and prolonged to ensure compatibility with the Paris Agreement goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro R. R. Rochedo & Panagiotis Fragkos & Rafael Garaffa & Lilia Caiado Couto & Luiz Bernardo Baptista & Bruno S. L. Cunha & Roberto Schaeffer & Alexandre Szklo, 2021. "Is Green Recovery Enough? Analysing the Impacts of Post-COVID-19 Economic Packages," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:17:p:5567-:d:629939
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Norbert Bajkó & Zsolt Fülöp & Kinga Nagyné Pércsi, 2022. "Changes in the Innovation- and Marketing-Habits of Family SMEs in the Foodstuffs Industry, Caused by the Coronavirus Pandemic in Hungary," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-17, March.
    4. Indre Siksnelyte-Butkiene, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic to the Sustainability of the Energy Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-19, November.
    5. Koasidis, Konstantinos & Nikas, Alexandros & Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan & Xexakis, Georgios & Forouli, Aikaterini & Mittal, Shivika & Gambhir, Ajay & Koutsellis, Themistoklis & Doukas, Haris, 2022. "Towards a green recovery in the EU: Aligning further emissions reductions with short- and long-term energy-sector employment gains," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    6. Bożena Gajdzik & Radosław Wolniak & Wieslaw Wes Grebski, 2022. "An Econometric Model of the Operation of the Steel Industry in POLAND in the Context of Process Heat and Energy Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-26, October.
    7. Panagiotis Fragkos & Pelopidas Siskos, 2022. "Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-4, March.
    8. Draeger, Rebecca & Cunha, Bruno S.L. & Müller-Casseres, Eduardo & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2022. "Stranded crude oil resources and just transition: Why do crude oil quality, climate ambitions and land-use emissions matter," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    9. Qi, Ruijuan & Liu, Chang & Zhang, Qiwen, 2024. "Evidence mechanism for promoting natural resources and green recovery through green economy: Sustainable assistance in finance," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Behnam Zakeri & Katsia Paulavets & Leonardo Barreto-Gomez & Luis Gomez Echeverri & Shonali Pachauri & Benigna Boza-Kiss & Caroline Zimm & Joeri Rogelj & Felix Creutzig & Diana Ürge-Vorsatz & David G. , 2022. "Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-23, August.
    11. Panagiotis Fragkos, 2022. "Decarbonizing the International Shipping and Aviation Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-25, December.
    12. Mohammed, Sayeed & Desha, Cheryl & Goonetilleke, Ashantha, 2023. "Investigating the potential of low-carbon pathways for hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states: Sociotechnical transition in Qatar," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    13. Crnčec, Danijel & Penca, Jerneja & Lovec, Marko, 2023. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the EU: From a sustainable energy transition to a green transition?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

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