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The economics of changing course: implications of adaptability and inertia for optimal climate policy

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  • Michael Grubb

    (EEP - Energy and Environmental Programme - Royal Institute of International Affairs)

  • Chapuis Thierry

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - ENGREF - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Minh Ha-Duong

    () (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - ENGREF - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper reviews evidence that energy technologies and systems adapt over time to accomodate external pressures: that technical innovation and systemic change in the energy sector is largely induced by need, and restrained by potentially large transitional costs. A simple integrated model of optimal greenhouse gas abatement over time is presented, in which the abatement cost depends on both fixed and transitional elements. It is shown that the optimal current response and long-run prospects differ radically between the classical economic case - in which the cost of a given cutback in emissions is fixed exogenously - and the adaptative case - in which the response is ultimately adaptative but heavily constrained by inertia (i.e. low fixed but high transitional costs). If energy systems are indeed to a large degree adaptive, the results demonstrate that as compared with the classical non-adaptive case: long-run stabilization of atmospheric CO2 may be optimal even with moderate damages from climate change; greater near-term abatement efforts are justified; and the cost of a given delay in response may be several times higher. Neglect of the issue of induced technical change and other adaptive responses may invalidate the policy implications drawn from most integrated assessment models developed to date.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Grubb & Chapuis Thierry & Minh Ha-Duong, 1995. "The economics of changing course: implications of adaptability and inertia for optimal climate policy," Post-Print halshs-00002455, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00002455
    DOI: 10.1016/0301-4215(95)90167-6
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00002455
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-937, July.
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    5. Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 1993. "Modelling long-run scenarios : Methodology lessons from a prospective study on a low CO2 intensive country," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 309-326, March.
    6. Anderson, Dennis & Bird, Catherine D, 1992. "Carbon Accumulations and Technical Progress--A Simulation Study of Costs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(1), pages 1-29, February.
    7. Dermot Gately, 1993. "The Imperfect Price-Reversibility of World Oil Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 163-182.
    8. Ernst Berndt & Charles Kolstad & Jong-Kun Lee, 1993. "Measuring the Energy Efficiency and Productivity Impacts of Embodied Technical Change," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 33-56.
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    Keywords

    technological change; climate policy;

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