IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v11y2018i4p817-d139189.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ageing Impact on the Economy and Emissions in China: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Taoyuan Wei

    (CICERO Center for International Climate Research, P.O. Box 1129 Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway)

  • Qin Zhu

    (School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China)

  • Solveig Glomsrød

    (CICERO Center for International Climate Research, P.O. Box 1129 Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway)

Abstract

Population ageing will accelerate in the coming decades in China. This ageing may have considerable impact on the economy and energy-related emissions, potentially affecting the global economy and global climate. By using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model we explore the impact caused by the population ageing through imposing the expected 2050 age structure on the economy and population size of 2011. Results show that gross domestic product (GDP) of China is reduced by nearly 10% as the ageing reduces consumption, labor supply and investments. However, increasing returns to capital abroad adds support to domestic demand. Ageing process in other countries can double ageing impacts on domestic consumption and encourage only a few production sectors in China. Global energy-related emissions is reduced by 700 Mt carbon dioxide (or about 70% of the 2011 emissions in Japan) due to the population ageing in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Taoyuan Wei & Qin Zhu & Solveig Glomsrød, 2018. "Ageing Impact on the Economy and Emissions in China: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:4:p:817-:d:139189
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/4/817/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/4/817/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angel Aguiar & Badri Narayanan & Robert McDougall, 2016. "An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 181-208, June.
    2. Dalton, Michael & O'Neill, Brian & Prskawetz, Alexia & Jiang, Leiwen & Pitkin, John, 2008. "Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 642-675, March.
    3. Mun-Heng Toh, 1998. "The RAS Approach in Updating Input-Output Matrices: An Instrumental Variable Interpretation and Analysis of Structural Change," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 63-78.
    4. Fei Yan & Shenglan Tang & Jian Zhang, 2016. "Global implications of China's healthcare reform," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 25-35, January.
    5. Wang, Yan & Xu, Dianqing & Wang, Zhi & Zhai, Fan, 2004. "Options and impact of China's pension reform: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 105-127, March.
    6. Wei, Taoyuan, 2013. "Comparing approaches to valuing sectoral net investments," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 316-328.
    7. Xiujian Peng, 2008. "Demographic Shift, Population Ageing And Economic Growth In China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 680-697, December.
    8. Li, Shiyu & Lin, Shuanglin, 2016. "Population aging and China's social security reforms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 65-95.
    9. Guonan Ma & Haiwen Zhou, 2009. "China's Large and Rising Net Foreign Asset Position," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(5), pages 1-21, September.
    10. Xiujian Peng & Yinhua Mai, 2008. "Population Ageing, Labour Market Reform and Economic Growth in China - A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-174, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    11. Zheng Guo & Linchen Liu & Xuan Liu, 2016. "Population Aging, Marginal Propensity to Consume, and Economic Growth," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(9), pages 534-546, September.
    12. Zheng Guo & Linchen Liu & Xuan Liu, 2016. "Population Aging, Marginal Propensity to Consume, and Economic Growth," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(9), pages 534-546.
    13. Zhong, Hai, 2011. "The impact of population aging on income inequality in developing countries: Evidence from rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 98-107, March.
    14. Fang Cai & Yang Lu, 2013. "Population Change and Resulting Slowdown in Potential GDP Growth in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(2), pages 1-14, March.
    15. Iris Claus & Les Oxley & Yang Du & Cuifen Yang, 2014. "Demographic Transition And Labour Market Changes: Implications For Economic Development In China," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 617-635, September.
    16. Wei, Taoyuan & Zhu, Qin & Glomsrød, Solveig, 2018. "How Will Demographic Characteristics of the Labor Force Matter for the Global Economy and Carbon Dioxide Emissions?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 197-207.
    17. Meng Li & Kunrong Shen, 2013. "Population Aging and Housing Consumption: A Nonlinear Relationship in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(5), pages 60-77, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ademola Obafemi Young, 2018. "Economic Growth and Population Ageing in Nigeria: Innovation Accounting Techniques," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(4), pages 190-190, July.
    2. Tae Yong Jung & Yong-Gun Kim & Jongwoo Moon, 2021. "The Impact of Demographic Changes on CO 2 Emission Profiles: Cases of East Asian Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, January.
    3. Zheng Tan & Kevin Ka-Lun Lau & Adam Charles Roberts & Stessa Tzu-Yuan Chao & Edward Ng, 2019. "Designing Urban Green Spaces for Older Adults in Asian Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-23, November.
    4. Chengmin Zhou & Ting Huang & Xin Luo & Jake Kaner & Xiaoman Fu, 2022. "Recognition and Analysis of an Age-Friendly Intelligent Sofa Design Based on Skeletal Key-Points," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-21, September.
    5. Patrik Rovný & Serhiy Moroz & Jozef Palkovič & Elena Horská, 2021. "Impact of Demographic Structure on Economic Development of Ukrainian Coastal Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Yu, Yan-Yan & Liang, Qiao-mei & Liu, Li-Jing, 2023. "Impact of population ageing on carbon emissions: A case of China's urban households," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 86-100.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xinxin Wang & Kevin Z Chen, 2016. "Will China’s Demographic Transition Exacerbate Its Income Inequality? A CGE Modeling with Top-down Microsimulation," Working Papers id:11406, eSocialSciences.
    2. Hare, Denise, 2016. "What accounts for the decline in labor force participation among married women in urban China, 1991–2011?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 251-266.
    3. Zhou, Yang & Wang, Heng & Qiu, Huanguang, 2023. "Population aging reduces carbon emissions: Evidence from China's latest three censuses," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    4. Iris Claus & Les Oxley & Yong Cai & Yuan Cheng, 2014. "Pension Reform In China: Challenges And Opportunities," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 636-651, September.
    5. Jiang, Min & Kim, Euijune, 2024. "Measuring the impacts of the two-child policy on industrial structure and economic growth in china using a CGE model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    6. Li, Chengjian & Lin, Shuanglin, 2019. "China's explicit social security debt: How large?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 128-139.
    7. Winchester, Niven & Reilly, John M., 2020. "The economic and emissions benefits of engineered wood products in a low-carbon future," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Casey, Gregory & Galor, Oded, 2017. "Is faster economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? The role of diminished population growth," MPRA Paper 76164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Li, Kunming & Fang, Liting & He, Lerong, 2019. "How population and energy price affect China's environmental pollution?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 386-396.
    10. Iris Claus & Les Oxley & Yang Du & Cuifen Yang, 2014. "Demographic Transition And Labour Market Changes: Implications For Economic Development In China," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 617-635, September.
    11. Inkyo Cheong & Valijon Turakulov, 2022. "How Central Asia to Escape from trade isolation?: Policy targeted scenarios by CGE modelling," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2622-2648, August.
    12. Jiandong Chen & Ping Wang & Jixian Zhou & Malin Song & Xinyue Zhang, 2022. "Influencing factors and efficiency of funds in humanitarian supply chains: the case of Chinese rural minimum living security funds," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 319(1), pages 413-438, December.
    13. Balie, Jean & Strutt, Anna & Nelgen, Signe & Narayanan, 2018. "Infrastructure investments for improved market access in subSaharan Africa: A CGE analysis," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), June.
    14. Itakura, Ken, 2019. "Incorporating Global Value Chains into the Dynamic GTAP Model [tentative results]," Conference papers 333111, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Xiaoyan Mu & Anthony Gar-On Yeh & Xiaohu Zhang & Jiejing Wang & Jian Lin, 2022. "Moving down the urban hierarchy: Turning point of China’s internal migration caused by age structure and hukou system," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 59(7), pages 1389-1405, May.
    16. Amos Golan & Stephen Vogel, 2000. "Estimation of Non-Stationary Social Accounting Matrix Coefficients with Supply-Side Information," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 447-471.
    17. Becker, Jonathon M., 2021. "General equilibrium impacts on the U.S. economy of a disruption to Chinese cobalt supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Khan, Aamir & Walmsley, Terrie & Mukhopadhyay, Kakali, 2019. "Trade Liberalization and Income Inequality: The Case for Pakistan," Conference papers 333125, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. O'Neill, Brian C. & Ren, Xiaolin & Jiang, Leiwen & Dalton, Michael, 2012. "The effect of urbanization on energy use in India and China in the iPETS model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 339-345.
    20. Eivind Lekve Bjelle & Johannes Többen & Konstantin Stadler & Thomas Kastner & Michaela C. Theurl & Karl-Heinz Erb & Kjartan-Steen Olsen & Kirsten S. Wiebe & Richard Wood, 2020. "Adding country resolution to EXIOBASE: impacts on land use embodied in trade," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:4:p:817-:d:139189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.