IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ess/wpaper/id11406.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Will China’s Demographic Transition Exacerbate Its Income Inequality? A CGE Modeling with Top-down Microsimulation

Author

Listed:
  • Xinxin Wang
  • Kevin Z Chen

Abstract

Demographic transition due to population aging is an emerging trend throughout the developing world, and it is especially acute in China, which has undergone demographic transition more rapidly than have most industrial economies. This paper quantifies the distributional effects in the context of demographic transition using an integrated recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model with top-down behavioral microsimulation. The results of the poverty and inequality index indicate that population aging has a negative impact on the reduction of poverty while its impact is positive with regard to equality. In addition, elderly rural households are experiencing the most serious poverty, and their inequality problems compared with other household groups and within group inequality worsens with demographic transition. These findings not only advance the previous literature but also deserve particular attention from Chinese policy makers. [IFPRI Discussion Paper 01560]

Suggested Citation

  • Xinxin Wang & Kevin Z Chen, 2016. "Will China’s Demographic Transition Exacerbate Its Income Inequality? A CGE Modeling with Top-down Microsimulation," Working Papers id:11406, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:11406
    Note: Institutional Papers
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esocialsciences.org/Download/repecDownload.aspx?fname=A20161010135422_20.pdf&fcategory=Articles&AId=11406&fref=repec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luc Savard, 2005. "Poverty and Inequality Analysis within a CGE Framework: A Comparative Analysis of the Representative Agent and Microsimulation Approaches," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 313-331, May.
    2. Kazutoshi Miyazawa, 2006. "Growth and inequality: a demographic explanation," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(3), pages 559-578, July.
    3. Hongyi Li & Danyang Xie & Heng‐Fu Zou, 2000. "Dynamics of income distribution," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 937-961, November.
    4. Garry F. Barrett & Thomas F. Crossley & Christopher Worswick, 2000. "Consumption and Income Inequality in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(233), pages 116-138, June.
    5. François Bourguignon & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality," Working Papers DT/2003/10, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    6. Hongyi Li & Lixin Colin Xu & Heng‐fu Zou, 2000. "Corruption, Income Distribution, and Growth," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 155-182, July.
    7. Paglin, Morton, 1975. "The Measurement and Trend of Inequality: A Basic Revision," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 598-609, September.
    8. C. Y. Cyrus Chu & Lily Jiang, 1997. "Demographic Transition, Family Structure, And Income Inequality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 665-669, November.
    9. Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "Poverty effects of Russia's WTO accession : modeling"real"households and endogenous productivity effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3473, The World Bank.
    10. Jiao Wang & David G. Mayes & Guanghua Wan, 2005. "Income Distribution and Labour Movement in China After WTO Membership: a CGE Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-38, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Deaton, Angus & Paxson, Christina, 1994. "Intertemporal Choice and Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 437-467, June.
    12. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2004. "Welfare Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 18(1), pages 29-57.
    13. Zhong, Hai, 2011. "The impact of population aging on income inequality in developing countries: Evidence from rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 98-107, March.
    14. Xiujian Peng & Dietrich Fausten, 2006. "Population Ageing And Labour Supply Prospects In China From 2005 To 2050," Monash Economics Working Papers 16/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    15. Jantti, Markus, 1997. "Inequality in Five Countries in the 1980s: The Role of Demographic Shifts, Markets and Government Policies," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(255), pages 415-440, August.
    16. T. Paul Schultz, 1997. "Income Inequality in Taiwan 1976-1995: Changing Family Composition, Aging, and Female Labor Force Participation," Working Papers 778, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    17. Garry F. Barreti & Tomas F. Crossley & Christopher Worswick, 2000. "Demographic Trends And Consumption Inequality In Australia Between 1975 And 1993," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 46(4), pages 437-456, December.
    18. Cai, Fang & Wang, Meiyan, 2010. "Growth and structural changes in employment in transition China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 71-81, March.
    19. Barrett, Garry F & Crossley, Thomas F & Worswick, Christopher, 2000. "Demographic Trends and Consumption Inequality in Australia between 1975 and 1993," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 46(4), pages 437-456, December.
    20. Fang Cai & Yang Lu, 2013. "Population Change and Resulting Slowdown in Potential GDP Growth in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(2), pages 1-14, March.
    21. Xiujian Peng & Yinhua Mai, 2008. "Population Ageing, Labour Market Reform and Economic Growth in China - A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-174, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    22. Barrett, Garry F & Crossley, Thomas F & Worswick, Christopher, 2000. "Consumption and Income Inequality in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(233), pages 116-138, June.
    23. Zhai, Fan & Hertel, Thomas, 2005. "Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda on China : the role of labor markets and complementary education reforms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3702, The World Bank.
    24. Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E., 1999. "Poverty Analysis Within a General Equilibrium Framework," Cahiers de recherche 9909, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
    25. Morley, Samuel A, 1981. "The Effect of Changes in the Population on Several Measures of Income Distribution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 285-294, June.
    26. Ohtake, Fumio & Saito, Makoto, 1998. "Population Aging and Consumption Inequality in Japan," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 44(3), pages 361-381, September.
    27. Kazutoshi Miyazawa, 2006. "Growth and inequality: a demographicexplanation," STICERD - Distributional Analysis Research Programme Papers 87, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    28. Chun-Hung Lin & Suchandra Lahiri & Ching-Po Hsu, 2015. "Population Aging and Regional Income Inequality in Taiwan: A Spatial Dimension," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 757-777, July.
    29. Fumio OHTAKE, 2008. "Inequality in Japan," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 3(1), pages 87-109, June.
    30. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Bernard Decaluwé & Luc Savard, 2008. "Poverty, income distribution and CGE micro-simulation modeling: Does the functional form of distribution matter?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 6(2), pages 149-184, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yumei Zhang & Yue Zhan & Xinshen Diao & Kevin Z. Chen & Sherman Robinson, 2021. "The Impacts of COVID‐19 on Migrants, Remittances, and Poverty in China: A Microsimulation Analysis," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(6), pages 4-33, November.
    2. Qi Zhang & Xinxin Zhang & Qi Cui & Weining Cao & Ling He & Yexin Zhou & Xiaofan Li & Yunpeng Fan, 2022. "The Unequal Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Labour Market and Income Inequality in China: A Multisectoral CGE Model Analysis Coupled with a Micro-Simulation Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-21, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhong, Hai, 2011. "The impact of population aging on income inequality in developing countries: Evidence from rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 98-107, March.
    2. Omoniyi B. Alimi & David C. Maré & Jacques Poot, 2018. "More Pensioners, Less Income Inequality? The Impact of Changing Age Composition on Inequality in Big Cities and Elsewhere," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Roger R. Stough & Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp & Uwe Blien (ed.), Modelling Aging and Migration Effects on Spatial Labor Markets, chapter 0, pages 133-159, Springer.
    3. Jurgen Faik & Uwe Fachinger, 2013. "The decomposition of well-being categories: An application to Germany," Working Papers 307, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    4. Wang, Xinxin & Chen, Kevin & Huang, Zuhui & Robinson, Sherman, 2013. "Demographic Transition and Income Distribution in China: CGE Modeling with Top-Down Micro-Simulation," Conference papers 332353, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Boccanfuso, Dorothée & Cabral, François & Cissé, Fatou & Diagne, Abdoulaye & Savard, Luc, 2007. "Stratégies de réduction de la pauvreté au Sénégal : une analyse par la modélisation en équilibre général calculable microsimulé," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 483-528, décembre.
    6. Omoniyi B Alimi & David C Maré & Jacques Poot, 2017. "More pensioners, less income inequality?," Working Papers 17_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    7. Wang, Xinxin & Chen, Kevin & Huang, Zuhui, 2013. "The Impact of China's Demographic Transition on Economic Growth and Income Distribution: CGE Modeling with Top-Down Micro-Simulation," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151276, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Sung-Jin Kang & Robert Rudolf, 2016. "Rising Or Falling Inequality In Korea? Population Aging And Generational Trends," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(05), pages 1-26, December.
    9. Xinxin Wang & Kevin Z. Chen & Sherman Robinson & Zuhui Huang, 2017. "Will China's demographic transition exacerbate its income inequality?–CGE modeling with top-down microsimulation," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 227-252, April.
    10. Luc Savard & Stéphane Mussard, 2005. "Micro-simulation and Multi-decomposition: A Case Study: Philippines," Cahiers de recherche 05-02, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    11. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard, 2005. "Impact Analysis of the Liberalization of Groundnut Production in Senegal: A Multi-household Computable General Equilibrium Model," Cahiers de recherche 05-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    12. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Massa Coulibaly & Luc Savard & Govinda Timilsina, 2018. "Macroeconomic and Distributional Impacts of Jatropha Based Biodiesel in Mali," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, November.
    13. Luc Savard, 2010. "Scaling up infrastructure spending in the Philippines: A CGE top-down bottom-up microsimulation approach," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 43-59.
    14. Rebecca Valenzuela & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2007. "Stochastic Dominance Analysis Of Australian Income Distributions," Monash Economics Working Papers 21-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    15. Dorothée BOCCANFUSO & Massa COULABY & Govinda R TIMILSINA & Luc SAVARD, 2010. "Economic and Distributional Impact of Bio-Fuels in Mali," EcoMod2010 259600032, EcoMod.
    16. Behrman, Jere R., 2009. "Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms, Volume Two: A Practitioner's Guide to Pension, Health, Labor Market, Public Sector Downsizing, Taxation, Decentralization, and Macroeconomic Modeling. A," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 396-397, July.
    17. Chun-Hung Lin & Suchandra Lahiri & Ching-Po Hsu, 2015. "Population Aging and Regional Income Inequality in Taiwan: A Spatial Dimension," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 757-777, July.
    18. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2005. "A Poverty and Inequality Impact Assessment of Liberalization of Water Utility in Senegal: A Macro-Micro Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 05-13, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    19. Joyce Hsieh, 2023. "Population aging and wealth inequality," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4223-4252, December.
    20. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2009. "Electricity Reforms In Mali: A Macro–Micro Analysis Of The Effects On Poverty And Distribution," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 127-147, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:11406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Padma Prakash (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.esocialsciences.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.